Andrey Areshev, political scientist

Analysts from the pro-government Turkish Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETAV) suggested some time ago that as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict escalates, Turkey, being a major regional player and a member of NATO, will become an increasingly important factor in world politics. At any opportunity, Recep Tayyip Erdogan will strive to demonstrate detailed knowledge of the subject of negotiations and focus on the early cessation of hostilities.

Regardless of how accurate this calculation is, the persistent attempts of the Turkish leader and people from his inner circle to portray the role of an “honest broker” have already had a certain effect on the course of the Russian special military operation (SVO) launched on February 24 on the territory of Ukraine. Thus, the statements of members of the Russian delegation Vladimir Medinsky and Alexander Fomin caused a wide public outcry after the completion of the sixth round of negotiations at the Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul on March 29. There is no doubt that the Turkish president has once again scored political points by finally approving (as it may seem to him) his state as an uncontested platform for Russian-Ukrainian negotiations.

Of course, Aksaray’s mediation efforts, in fact playing to the benefit of the puppet Kiev regime, contain a large share of domestic and foreign policy PR. “We have no illusions about the prospects of an easy solution, but Turkey will always seek peace and stability by providing assistance and mediation between Ukraine and Russia. Our region cannot allow new conflicts and humanitarian crises,” writes Fahrettin Altun, head of the Turkish communications office. Noting the important role of Turkey in resolving global and regional crises, he argues that his country always strives to provide a roadmap for creating a sustainable global system and does everything in its power to end the war through effective diplomacy. Of course, all this with the leading role of President Erdogan, on whose initiative the meeting tables were laid in a chic palace designed by architects from the Balyan family with a view of the Bosphorus.

Of course, it is not necessary to suspect such a sophisticated politician as the owner of Aksaray in sincere sympathy for the suffering of ordinary people in Ukraine and in the Donbas. In addition to the intention to use mediation between Moscow and the Zelensky regime as another springboard into the “top league” of international politics, they may well be driven by more mundane interests. For example, there were rumors about the alleged holding of a French-Turkish “humanitarian mission” in Mariupol to evacuate militants of the terrorist group “Azov” (banned in Russia) from the destroyed city.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has recently published several videos testifying to the destruction of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles in the skies of Donbass, which can significantly complicate their advertising campaign, which is being conducted almost all over the world. According to some reports, most of these vehicles that have entered service with the Ukrainian army have already been destroyed.

Despite the vulnerability of “Erdogan’s flies” to adequate air defense systems recognized by Western experts, it is certainly not worth underestimating their capabilities. Most likely, after the planned lightning defeat of the republics of Donbass, which was thwarted by the beginning of its almost at the last moment, very soon “Bayraktars” would appear on the borders of the Russian sky, creating serious threats. So, during the regular briefing on March 31, the head of the radiation, chemical and biological protection troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Igor Kirillov reported on the December request of the Zaporozhye enterprise “Motor Sich” about the possibility of equipping these attack drones with a flight range of 300 km by means of spraying aerosols with a volume of more than 20 liters. According to the general: “In fact, we are talking about the development by the Kiev regime of technical means of delivery and the use of biological weapons with the possibility of their use against the Russian Federation …”.

According to Russian media, a representative of Kiev, a certain Podolyak, who participated in the Istanbul negotiations, after their completion discussed with the management of Baykar Makina the supply of a new batch of Bayraktars. It is possible that this delivery has already begun. In any case, by means of objective control, flights of heavy An-124 transport aircraft of the Ukrainian Antonov company to the Chorlu airfield (Tekidarg province), known as the place of loading the products of the aforementioned company, one of the owners of which is Erdogan’s son-in-law Selchuk Bayraktar, were recorded.

We should add to this that until recently, the Turkish side was unable to return two A400M military transport aircraft that landed at Boryspil airport a few hours before Moscow launched a special military operation in Ukraine on the morning of February 24. Contradictory statements by Turkish officials about the “humanitarian” nature of the cargo being transferred to them, to put it mildly, do not inspire confidence, especially since the rest of the Turkish transport workers continue to regularly cruise towards the Rzeszow airfield in eastern Poland – one of the logistics hubs of military support for terrorist gangs in Ukraine.

Among the trophies of the Russian army and the LDPR forces in the Donbas, the products of the Turkish company ASELSAN, which came to Ukraine in 2018, were noticed. Even before the start of the operation, it became known about plans to equip Soviet-made attack helicopters (two of which recently attacked Belgorod) with UMTAS and CIRIT missiles with a laser guidance system. It is possible that Turkish technologies in a short time could seriously strengthen the Ukrainian arsenal of medium-range missiles that pose an immediate danger to the territory of Russia.

All this and much more does not fit in with the negotiation tricks of Erdogan, who is trying to sit not on two, but on several chairs at once. Hoping to take advantage of the moment, Turkish companies are preparing to expand into the Russian consumer market. At the same time, distancing the Erdogan regime from anti-Russian sanctions at the level of public rhetoric does not mean the absence of various kinds of restrictions (for example, banking when opening accounts). The desire of Turkish business closely connected with the West to reinsure itself or wait out the “troubled times” can noticeably adjust bilateral trade and economic cooperation, bringing into it an essential element of “gray” schemes” already tested in cooperation with neighboring Iran.

“Turkey geostrategically sided with Ukraine,” writes Murat Eshiltas, Director of Foreign Research at SETAV. At the same time, Erdogan’s chief adviser Ibrahim Kalyn speaks of Turkey as one of “those rare countries with which both Ukraine and Russia communicate and which they both trust.” In any case, the ongoing military support of the Kiev regime under the mantra of “equidistant” mediation does not bring a positive to the Russian-Turkish dialogue.