X

Political scientist Vladimir Evseev – whether the Russian leader needs a meeting with the President of Ukraine

Date of publication: 11 May 2021

The Ukrainian side continues to insist on a meeting between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky. About two weeks ago, such an idea arose, of course, from American curators who were not interested in a large-scale war in the Donbass. As a result, the head of the office of the head of Ukraine, Andrey Yermak, sent a request to Moscow to discuss the “escalation in the south-east”. The paradox of this situation is that Russia is not a party to the conflict, so it is not going to discuss this problem with Kiev on a bilateral basis., the “Normandy format” of negotiations was created in order to resolve the crisis in which Germany and France are participants in addition to Russia and Ukraine. In February 2015, at a meeting in this format, a set of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreements, known as “Minsk-2”, was adopted.

Moreover, the entire responsibility for the escalation of the armed conflict in the Donbas is borne by the Kiev authorities. It once again showed its inability to negotiate due to the buildup of its troops there and numerous violations of the ceasefire, which led to casualties, including among the local population of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR, LPR).

Initially, Vladimir Zelensky suggested that Vladimir Putin meet in “any point of the Donbass where there is a war”, ostensibly to better understand the situation. The answer of the Russian side was obvious: first, President Zelensky needs to meet with the heads of the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR, and only then in Moscow with Vladimir Putin, but to discuss the problems of bilateral relations, and not the situation in the Donbass, which has no direct relation to the Russian Federation. Then there were such “ideal” places for negotiations, such as the Vatican.

On April 19, a video conference of political advisers to the leaders of the “Normandy format” countries was held. They only touched upon the issue of compliance with the truce on the line of contact of the warring parties in the Donbas, but did not reach specific agreements. At the same time, the Ukrainian representative categorically refused to even discuss the mechanism for bringing to justice those responsible for violating the ceasefire. The representatives of Germany and France proposed an unaddressed declarative political statement of commitment to this regime. This once again confirms the fact that it was Kiev that initiated the aggravation of the situation in the Donbas, and Berlin and Paris are more imitating the negotiation process. As a result, as noted by the representative of the Russian side — Deputy head of the presidential administration Dmitry Kozak, “more than three hours of negotiations ended without result”.

There is no doubt that a possible meeting of the presidents outside the “Normandy format” of negotiations meets only the American and Ukrainian interests. Washington and Kiev are once again trying to portray Moscow as a party to the armed conflict in the Donbas and are hindering the implementation of the Minsk-2 agreements. American experts propose to abandon these agreements altogether and expand the “Normandy format” at the expense of the United States. All this is contrary to Russian national interests for the following reasons.

Firstly, Washington fully defines the position of the Ukrainian leadership on the Donbas. Large-scale American assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine can change the balance of forces on the front line, but so far it is limited and is expressed more in the training of military personnel than in the supply of modern weapons. Only the United States is potentially able to create its own military base in Ukraine and lobby for the country’s entry into NATO. Therefore, Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden will have to agree on the settlement of the situation in the Donbas in the framework of a possible bilateral meeting in June. The reason for a possible dialogue on this issue is that the Americans are not going to fight for Ukraine.

Secondly, the “Normandy format” of negotiations is based on the Minsk-2 agreements. The Americans are not directly involved in this, so the expansion of its participants is not supported by serious grounds. Under the Biden administration, Washington’s influence on Berlin and Paris has already grown significantly. At the same time, it is impractical for Russia to abandon this format both in the interests of preserving the agreements and maintaining relations in the military-political sphere with Germany and France at the current level.

Therefore, without giving up the very possibility of a summit meeting between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, Moscow wants at least to postpone such a meeting indefinitely. At the same time, it continues to work on this issue with Berlin and Paris in the framework of the “Normandy format” and Washington on a bilateral basis.



Comments

0

Read on the topic