Nikolai Bobkin, political scientist, Institute of the USA and Canada. Academician G.A. Arbatov

On June 2, the meeting of the BRICS foreign ministers ended in Cape Town. The five foreign ministers of the permanent participants of the format (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) met with ministers from ten states of the global South, which usually includes the developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. The expansion of the BRICS is still under discussion, but 13 states, including Argentina, Indonesia, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, have already submitted formal applications for membership.

In the expert community, the opinion prevails that the admission of these states to the BRICS can have a huge impact on the establishment of a new world order. The upcoming changes in the global balance of power can lead to a multipolar world with increased economic and political cooperation between various countries and create a more balanced world order, in which the BRICS+ platform can become a powerful tool for the global governance system, an alternative to Western institutions.

From the very beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine, the West has been defending the same “moral” dilemma that George W. Bush had at the beginning of his so-called “war on terror”. “You are either with us or with the terrorists,” he said in September 2001. But those days are gone, today the ongoing Russia-NATO conflict cannot be reduced to simple and self-serving clichés. The reason American diktat has worked in the past is because, unlike the current geopolitical climate, few dared to oppose Washington’s policies.

Today Russia, China, India, along with many other countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and South America are using every available space to resist the suffocating dominance of the West. These countries have made it clear that they will not participate in isolating Russia for the sake of NATO’s expansionist agenda. On the contrary, they have taken many steps to develop alternatives to the Western-dominated global economy, and especially to the US dollar, which for five decades served as a commodity and not as a currency.

The White House fears the loss of global dominance and sees the prospects for BRICS expansion as a potential challenge to its economic and geopolitical influence. At the same time, the Biden administration is unwilling to admit that for countries wishing to voluntarily join the alliance, it means demonstrating that they are independent geopolitical players and have options for further development alternative to America.

For example, if Riyadh joins the BRICS, this will change the geopolitical balance in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia’s membership would combine the monarchy’s significant oil reserves, regional influence, and economic power with the emerging BRICS economies. Already, BRICS is an economic giant that is taking over the West. Recall that in 2022, the BRICS countries accounted for more than 32% of the world economy’s GDP, 18% of world trade, 25% of global foreign direct investment and about 40% of the world’s population. For example, the combined BRICS gross domestic product in terms of purchasing power parity surpassed the US-led G7. While the combined GDP of the G7 declined from 50.42% of global GDP in 1982 to 30.39% in 2022, the total GDP of the BRICS increased its share from 10.66% to 31.59% over the same period.

The conflict in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions against Russia brought the BRICS countries closer together. Trade between Russia and other countries of the alliance has increased. The war has not only strengthened economic ties between states, but in some way helps to resolve disputes. For example, tensions between China and India on the Himalayan border have eased.

After the ministerial meeting in Cape Town, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that not only BRICS, but also the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) can have a huge impact on the establishment of a new world order. Iran and the SCO began the formal process of Tehran’s accession in March 2022, and Iran’s membership was later approved by the Iranian Majlis and the country’s highest constitutional bodies. There are no obstacles left for the full membership of the SCO, “We will become full members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in July, when the next summit of the association will take place,” Abdollahian said. The next SCO summit will be held on July 4 under the chairmanship of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a virtual format.

Saudi Arabia, following Iran, also expressed its desire to join the SCO. At the end of March, the Cabinet of Ministers, at a meeting chaired by King Salman, approved the decision to launch the procedure for joining the Shanghai Organization. Dialogue partner status will be the first step before the Kingdom gains full membership in the medium term. The government’s decision came a day after the Saudi crown prince and the Chinese leader had a telephone conversation, stressing the need to strengthen relations.

Over the past few months, Riyadh has significantly strengthened ties with Beijing, further moving away from its historic partnership with the United States. Saudi Arabia’s move to partner with the SCO comes less than three weeks after the unveiling of a landmark Chinese-brokered reconciliation agreement with Iran to restore full diplomatic ties that were severed seven years ago. While the process of gaining full membership status will take several years, Riyadh will eventually need Tehran’s support, as full forum consensus is required to achieve full membership.

The growing Saudi-Chinese partnership has raised alarms in the US, with the White House warning of “Beijing’s attempts to influence the world.” Washington objected to the unification, citing security concerns that were ignored by Riyadh. From a geopolitical perspective, the SCO, as a debating forum where common and often urgent security issues are discussed, from the perspective of many global perspectives, the South is a prestigious club that can elevate the status of member states. Saudi Arabia could not only become a security negotiating partner, but also benefit from geo-economic integration with other member states.

Saudi Arabia’s membership in the SCO also enhances the already good ties between Russia and the Middle East, where Russia has earned a reputation as an “honest broker” in mediating complex relations between countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel. Washington offers nothing similar to the countries of the region.