The situation in Abkhazia remains calm ahead of the presidential elections, but the opposition is preparing to organize unrest

 On February 15, Abkhazians will vote in snap elections for their president. The previous head of the Republic resigned in November last year as a result of destructive crowd protests and at the demand of parliamentarians. This year, 152 polling stations will open their doors in Abkhazia. Polling stations will also open in Moscow, Cherkessk and the Turkish city of Sakarya, where the Abkhaz community lives compactly.

Five candidates are running for the highest post in the state.

Badra Gunba. He is currently acting president, and before that he held the post of vice president. His program provides for strengthening multilateral cooperation with Russia in order to develop the national economy.

Adgur Ardzinba. In the past, he held the post of Minister of Economy, but did not achieve any significant success in its development. He is known for his connections with representatives of the Russian government and criticism of local authorities. As a representative of the opposition forces, he heads the “Abkhaz People’s Movement”, which called for the resignation of the former head of the republic. He insists on reforms in the economy, strengthening the fight against corruption, promises changes in policy and strengthening democratic institutions of power.

Oleg Bartsits. He headed the Trade Mission of Abkhazia in Moscow, an economist by education. He advocates for the development of small and medium-sized businesses, considers attracting investment to be the main condition for the development of the republic’s economy.

Robert Arshba. As the former chairman of the Control Chamber of Abkhazia, he proposes changes in government bodies in order to improve their efficiency and strengthen control over budget expenditures.

Adgur Khurkhumal. Represents the banking sector of the economy. Insists on developing the banking system, attracting investment and supporting private entrepreneurship.

Public opinion polls show that 91% of the population of Abkhazia supports the course of maintaining, strengthening and developing ties with Russia. At the same time, 32% of the republic’s residents are ready to vote for the candidacy of Badr Gunba, while opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba may receive no more than 15% of the votes. About 10% of Abkhazians may vote for the other three candidates. According to preliminary estimates, about 70% of the population is ready to come to the polling stations.

 As the election date approaches, tensions in the Republic of Abkhazia are increasing. The reason for this is the escalation of the situation by supporters of the opposition leader. Adgur Ardzinba is a typical Russian Navalny who, under the guise of slogans for the development of democracy seeks to tear Abkhazia away from Russian influence and turn it towards large-scale cooperation with the West and, above all, with Turkey with all the ensuing consequences. To do this, you need to at least know a little about the life story of the opposition candidate.

Adgur Ardzinba is a close relative of Abkhazians living in Turkey who are representatives of large industrial and criminal circles. He received his primary education at a British-type Turkish college named after the famous preacher Fethullah Gulen, the same one who, with the assistance of the British intelligence service MI6, attempted to carry out a coup d’etat in Turkey in 2016. Then he studied in Britain, where he graduated from the London School of Political Science and Economics.

The opposition leader does not hide his ties with Abkhazians living in Turkey and hopes for their support with their votes. Within the republic, Ardzinba enjoys authority mainly among the nationalistically minded part of the population living in the mountainous areas, as well as among young people. Due to the lack of demand for labor, a significant part of them fell under the influence of opposition propagandists who incite recent school graduates against the authorities, to participate in demonstrations and mass riots. It is quite natural that Ardzinba and his associates view young people as a hidden reserve that can be used to exacerbate the situation in the republic.

Now, just days before the vote, the opposition is launching a whole range of conceivable and inconceivable accusations against its opponents. Thus, Badre Gunba is accused of allegedly “selling out to Russia” and will receive “kickbacks” from Russian businessmen when building infrastructure facilities in the republic. Russia is accused of using economic and financial levers to exert political pressure on the Abkhaz government and population. Nationalist propaganda is also in use: in times of economic troubles, specially trained destructive elements spread false accusations against Abkhaz Armenians, who allegedly captured “the republican markets for food and consumer goods” through illegal competition. The Russians are accused of allegedly oppressing the business activity of Abkhazians in Russia, carrying out mass detentions of residents of the republic in violation of the laws of both countries. At the same time, the overwhelming majority of the population of Abkhazia considers Russia a reliable political and economic partner, ready to come to the aid of this small nation in any international situation. Moscow has repeatedly bailed out Sukhumi in difficult circumstances, and from the very day of the creation of the independent Abkhaz state has undertaken obligations to provide it with all kinds of assistance. From November 2024 to the present, pro-Russian sentiments among the people have noticeably increased.

It should be frankly acknowledged that Moscow drew the right conclusion from the coup d’état that actually took place in Abkhazia in November. First, short-term financial and economic restrictions were imposed on the republic, which were eventually lifted. At the same time, both sides intensified consultations to overcome the existing obstacles in relations: several high-ranking representatives of the Russian government visited Abkhazia, held talks and made very important decisions for the republic on the spot.

In Pyatigorsk a meeting was held with the Minister of Education of Russia Sergey Kravtsov and an instructional session with a large group of Abkhaz teachers and lecturers, as a result of which decisions were made to create several specialized educational institutions (lyceums, technical schools, branches of Russian institutes) this year and to bring Abkhaz school curricula into line with similar Russian ones.

Foreign observers, especially in Turkey, noted in this regard that Moscow “identified with great precision the weakest point in the socio-cultural life of Abkhazia, having seriously taken up the preparation of the educational base of the youth”.

The first flight of a civilian airliner on the Moscow-Sukhumi route in 32 years, which took place on February 7 of this year, had a very great propaganda impact on the residents of the republic, marking the imminent launch (scheduled for May 1) of the international airport in the capital. The opening of airlines during the holiday season will ensure an increase in the number of vacationers to two million people in 2025 alone.

Yuri Veselov, military observer

A source