Nikolay Bobkin, political scientist, Institute of the USA and Canada. Academician G.A. Arbatov

Diplomats from Russia, Syria, Turkey and Iran held consultations in Moscow on April 3-4 on a possible normalization of relations between Ankara and Damascus. The talks were supposed to be a prelude to the forthcoming meeting of the foreign ministers of the four countries. Judging by the fact that Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has already stated that Ankara is waiting for an invitation from the Russian side to participate in negotiations at the ministerial level in Moscow, the consultations held have achieved their goal.

Welcoming the participants in the quadripartite talks, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov urged Syrian and Turkish diplomats to show “flexibility and a constructive attitude” and abandon “confrontational rhetoric and past grievances.” He added that the normalization process would take time, emphasizing the importance of “finding common ground to achieve a balance of interests without preconditions”.

Moscow and Tehran are ready to continue to mediate in advancing the Turkish-Syrian negotiations. The joint consultations in Moscow are an important step forward at a time when UN-brokered efforts to reach a political solution to the Syrian conflict have stalled. Against this backdrop, the Kremlin is doing a lot to help Syria rebuild torn ties with other countries in the region, including neighboring Turkey, which has supported armed opposition to Assad throughout the 12-year conflict.

Russia’s position is that the future of Turkish forces on Syrian territory should be decided in negotiations between Turkey and Syria. Both sides must take into account the circumstances that brought the situation to its current state and find ways to overcome hostility. Reconciliation efforts between Syria and Turkey were the focus of Russian President Putin’s talks with his Syrian counterpart Assad during his visit to Moscow last month. The Syrian President outlined the conditions for normalizing relations with Ankara. His demands included the withdrawal of Turkish troops from Syria and the end of support for terrorists. Until now, Turkey has de facto control over large areas in the northwest of the country, including opposition-held areas in and around Idlib. At the same time, since 2016, Ankara has carried out four military operations in Syria.

But even as Turkey backs Syrian opposition fighters, Ankara and Damascus are equally alarmed by the US-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeast Syria. The Turkish authorities are at odds with the SDF, accusing them of being part of the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey, which has been waging an insurgency for decades with separatist goals. The Assad government also sees the SDF as a separatist force under US control helping the US plunder the country’s wealth by controlling Syria’s major oil fields.

Significantly, Turkish-Syrian reconciliation efforts come at a time when Recep Tayyip Erdogan is under intense pressure from the Turkish public to send Syrian refugees home amid a sharp economic downturn and growing anti-refugee sentiment. Erdogan cannot completely ignore these demands, because in May he will have presidential and parliamentary elections.

In addition, since the catastrophic earthquake that hit Syria and Turkey in February, international sympathy seems to have accelerated regional convergence. Syria’s reconciliation with the Middle East is rapidly gaining momentum after the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the establishment of official contacts between President Assad and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and other Gulf states. Some are calling for dialogue with Syria and the return of the country to the Arab League, whose membership was suspended due to the outbreak of the civil war.

So far, not all countries in the region are ready to establish or restore ties with Syria. The UAE, Bahrain, Egypt and Saudi Arabia often work together in the region as a quartet of sorts. Here much depends on the policy of Riyadh. Kuwait, Oman and Jordan, as a rule, cooperate somewhat separately, but in parallel with the four, again recognizing the leadership of Saudi Arabia. While Qatar and Turkey are close partners, Doha is in no hurry to announce its intentions to start a dialogue with Assad. Some analysts call this position of Qatar an obstacle to Turkish-Syrian normalization. So far, Ankara is hesitating, but with the mediation of Russia, the negotiation process has been launched.

More than a decade of diplomacy and norms in the Middle East are changing, not only with respect to Syria. Recent developments, such as the reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, indicate a major shift in regional security priorities. Saudi-Iranian reconciliation could spread throughout the region.

Turkey, Iran and Russia launched the Astana process together in 2017 to restore stability in Syria. But the war-torn country has been a source of rivalry between Tehran and Ankara since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, with Turkey and Iran backing the opposing sides. Iran sees the Syrian regime as key to confronting Israel, while Turkey has backed opposition groups fighting Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Iran also attaches great importance to the Shiite cities of Nabal and Al-Zahra in northern Syria and is trying to keep them in its sphere of influence. However, a possible Turkish operation against Tal Rifaat to unite the Turkish-controlled areas of Afrin and Al-Bab would expose these Shiite cities to the risk of attack due to their proximity.

Until recently, a possible Turkish military operation in northern Syria could have put Turkish and Iranian proxies on the brink of clashes. Today, Tehran, contrary to popular belief about the desire to strengthen its position in Syria, including by maintaining its isolation, does not object to the return of Damascus to the Arab world and is ready to play a constructive role in advancing reconciliation talks between Turkey and Syria. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian at recent talks in Ankara, given Tehran’s close relationship with the two countries, promised to do “everything possible” to achieve restoration of relations between Ankara and Damascus “as soon as possible”.

Time will tell if what appears to be a series of important steps today will actually have a long-term impact. It will also be important to see how these shifts will affect Israel and its ties to the Arab countries, or how they could weaken Washington’s position throughout the region.

A source