Sergey Saenko, international observer

The US-led collective West is apparently opening a “second front” against Russia in the states of Central Asia (CA). A clear confirmation of this can be the fact that emissaries from have recently cleared the republics of this region across the ocean.

For example, we can recall that in the period from May 23 to May 27 of this year, a representative American delegation headed by US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu (formerly Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan – ed.) visited Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Recently, this is the third trip of high-ranking US officials to the region. In particular, earlier, from April 11 to April 16, 2022, Uzra Zeya, the US Deputy Secretary of State for Civil Security, Democracy and Human Rights, visited Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

The official purpose of the visit of the delegation led by Donald Lu is “strengthening US relations with the region and advancing joint efforts to create a secure environment.” However, based on the composition of the delegation, which in addition to Lou included Senior Director of the National Security Council for Russia and Central Asia Eric Green, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia Rebecca Zimmerman, Deputy Assistant Administrator of the US Agency for Asian Affairs Anjali Kaur and Naz El-Khatib, Deputy Head of Policy at the US International Development Finance Corporation, apparently had a slightly different purpose for the visit.

Namely, the promotion of military-technical cooperation in conjunction with “soft power” in the form of civilian initiatives (for example, “common values ​​and US support for the empowerment of women”), promoted through the expansion of the activities of various non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in the region. By the way, most of the delegations are members of the American Agency for International Development (USAID) banned in Russia.

How initiatives to promote “civil society” usually end up can be seen from the recent January events in Kazakhstan, the numerous revolutions in Kyrgyzstan, where various Western-sponsored NGOs played an important role. In terms of military cooperation, the United States is not taking “first steps” either. In particular, it is no secret that Washington has been supplying weapons to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan for a long time. We also note that the armies of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, in terms of structure, weapons, are practically transferred to the NATO standard.

Let’s not forget that during such visits, given the mandatory meetings with representatives of the defense departments, the return of US military bases that were already in the region may be initiated. Recall that in the period from 2000 to 2014, the United States was able to agree with Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan on the creation of their own bases on their territory, as well as on the development of security cooperation with Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan against the background of the operation in Afghanistan that was beginning at that moment. But at the moment, Russia is categorically opposed to US military bases on the territory of the Central Asian countries and, one might say, turned on the red light for Washington’s attempts to do so.

Moreover, today it is extremely important for the United States to prevent the participation of the Central Asian republics in circumventing sanctions against Russia. Ideally, it will be preferably to persuade the local authorities to turn against Moscow. In this regard, it is not at all surprising that Donald Lu’s statements mainly concerned anti-Russian sanctions – he promised his Central Asian partners that these restrictive measures would not cause them any indirect harm. However, the topic of ensuring regional security was also touched upon – that is, the issue on which Moscow is forced to compete with Washington.

Considering the situation in the world after February 24, when Russia launched a special operation in Ukraine, the tour of such a representative delegation from the United States led by Donald Lu to the Central Asian countries is a clear desire of Washington to isolate the countries of the region from Moscow’s influence and turn them towards the United States. The visit is largely due to the fact that it is the participation of the countries of this region that can make the Western sanctions pressure on Russia not so large-scale.

Central Asia is a strategically important region in geopolitical terms – it is here that the interests of nuclear powers intersect: Russia, China, India, Pakistan, India. Iran is also here, promoting its projects in the region (such as the opening of a plant for the production of Ababil 2 UAVs in Tajikistan). The attention of the US and its allies is supported by the presence of hydrocarbons in the region. According to some data, about 7.2% of the world’s oil resources and 7% of gas resources are concentrated in Central Asia.

Given the repeated attempts to “ignite the fire” in the region (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan), Washington’s interest in money from the sale of drugs, uranium and oil (the latter applies to a greater extent to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) and some other factors, it is highly likely that revitalization of US activities in the region. And the huge shadow incomes received by the United States can be used to promote “democracy” in the region.

At the same time, in the American strategy for Central Asia for 2019-2025, as in all previous versions, the United States seeks to prevent a direct clash of interests in the region with other major players, primarily with Russia and China. The document recognizes the inevitability that Moscow and Beijing, due to their geographical proximity, will continue to actively develop their contacts with the region and Washington is unlikely to be able to surpass the degree of their influence. But it does not at all follow from this that the Americans have resigned themselves and are ready to cede to the Russians and the Chinese their niche, which has been formed over the past three decades.

Washington’s strategy takes into account the increase in the likelihood of a positive result by dispersing efforts to several countries, not concentrating on one particular one. Further actions will proceed from where the greatest return will be noted. Whether it will be Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan or Tajikistan does not play a special role for Washington. All available forces and means, including those deployed from neighboring countries of the region, will be concentrated on the republic, which has shown the greatest exposure to American influence and expresses the maximum indicators of protest anti-government sentiments.

The situation is complicated by the fact that the instability of the Central Asian region is needed not only by the United States. Recently, an active promotion of Great Britain and Turkey has been noticed here. London and Ankara have their own interests, united by a single line – imperial ambitions. This is opposed by the positions of Russia and China, for which the stability of Central Asia is important. The result is a ratio: Russia and China against the United States, Great Britain and Turkey, two to three.

Taking into account this ratio, as well as the need to weaken Russia through the creation of new hotbeds of tension, in the medium term (from two to five years), experts do not exclude that we can expect either new “color revolutions” in the states of the region, or the emergence of a military presence of countries NATO through the creation of military bases. Although the latter does not seem quite realistic in the current conditions, however, such a development of events cannot be completely ruled out, and Moscow needs to be prepared for this.

In view of the foregoing, we can conclude that Russia, in order to ensure its own security, needs to pursue a more active policy in the Central Asian region, primarily through integration associations – the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Organization Collective Security Treaty (CSTO).