Central Asian states intend to restore a unified electric ring with Russia

In the current context of Western sanctions pressure on Russia one of the goals of which is to disrupt our country’s economic ties and isolate it on the international stage, cooperation with post-Soviet countries, including the states of Central Asia (CA) is becoming especially important for Moscow.

A particularly important area of ​​this cooperation is the energy sector, where a number of promising areas have emerged in recent years that could significantly change the current situation in the entire Central Asian region. This primarily refers to Russia’s entry into the unified Central Asian energy system, which could accelerate the process of economic integration across the Eurasian region.

Here it is perhaps appropriate to recall that back in the 1960s and 1970s, the so-called Central Asian Energy Ring, which included Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, was developed. This system operated independently of the Soviet Union’s Unified Energy System. However, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991, this energy system effectively ceased to exist due to the lack of centralized management, tariff differences, and interstate disagreements. However, in 1999, concerned about the current situation in the energy sector, the governments of all five Central Asian republics were forced to restore their previous ties and sign a corresponding agreement on the parallel operation of energy systems, which formed the Unified Energy System of Central Asia (UES CA).

The creation of this system allowed the countries of the region to somewhat compensate for seasonal fluctuations in electricity demand and water needs due to fluctuating mountain river levels. However, this did not solve all of the region’s energy and water supply problems. Furthermore, Turkmenistan withdrew from the common energy ring in 2003, deciding to become self-sufficient in electricity and later even sell electricity to neighboring countries, particularly Afghanistan and Iran. In 2009, Dushanbe followed Ashgabat’s example.

The region’s energy problems led Uzbekistan to propose restoring a full-fledged Central Asian energy ring in 2025. Tashkent’s idea was supported by Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan later joined them. Meanwhile, the issue with Turkmenistan remains unresolved. However, these are only intentions for now, and the Central Asian energy ring operates primarily in southern Kazakhstan, with no plans to extend it to all countries in the region. It is no secret that Central Asia is currently facing a losing battle in terms of energy and water supply.

A way out of the impasse could be the conversion of, for example, the Toktogul Hydroelectric Power Plant in Kyrgyzstan to irrigation mode. However, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have not yet reached agreement on this issue. Another “savior” of the current situation could be the full launch of the Rogun Hydroelectric Power Plant in Tajikistan. But this too is fraught with problems. Only two of six units have been commissioned to date, representing approximately 25% of the design capacity. A lack of funding, including from the World Bank (WB), is slowing construction; completion dates have been repeatedly postponed due to environmental violations, and it remains unclear when the plant will operate at full capacity.

Incidentally, Tajikistan possesses vast hydroelectric resources, but is currently using only 5% of this capacity. Experts believe that the country’s total hydroelectric potential is four times greater than the combined electricity consumption of Central Asian countries (approximately 150 billion kWh). In this regard, it is not surprising that energy transfer agreements from the future Rogun hydroelectric power station have already been signed with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, which underscores the strategic importance of Tajik energy resources for the entire region.

It’s also worth noting that the process of energy integration among Central Asian countries has never completely ceased and continues to this day. For example, in mid-August, the energy ministers of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, Daler Juma and Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov, discussed expanding bilateral energy cooperation and building a common energy bridge between the two countries. Specifically, they discussed electricity exports and imports for the autumn-winter period of 2025/26. However, experts believe that to restore the full functionality of the unified energy ring for Central Asian countries, they must connect to Russia’s Central Asian Unified Energy System. This has been discussed for years, but the practical implementation of this joint project has yet to materialize.

Nevertheless the project’s prospects remain positive. Suffice it to say that in 2024, the Central Asian countries signed a memorandum of cooperation within the energy ring, confirming their intention to develop the project with Russia’s participation. It is planned that by 2030, the Central Asian energy ring will provide electricity flows of 20 billion kWh annually, covering the region’s current electricity deficit. Russia, in turn, will gain access to the growing Central Asian market, where electricity demand, according to forecasts from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), will grow by 25% by 2035.

This will strengthen Moscow’s economic ties with the countries of the region and create the basis for long-term cooperation. However, to achieve this, Russia first needs to join the Central Asian energy ring. To do this, the parties will need to agree on the modernization of transmission capacity in Kazakhstan and possibly Uzbekistan. Despite the existing difficulties, it is important for Russia to gain a foothold in this area and become a permanent, stable supplier of electricity for Central Asian states via Kazakhstan.

In this regard it’s no coincidence that the unified Central Asian energy ring, with Russia’s participation, is being called a strategically important project, capable of eliminating electricity shortages in the region, increasing the reliability of energy supply, and stimulating economic growth in all participating countries. The advantages of the unified energy ring are obvious. Firstly, the project allows for the optimization of hydropower resources. Hydroelectric power plants in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are capable of generating up to 15 billion kWh annually, but currently only 60% of their potential is utilized due to transmission constraints. Integration of energy systems will allow excess energy to be channeled to regions with energy shortages, reducing dependence on imported gas and coal. Secondly, the unified energy ring will increase the resilience of energy systems. According to the World Bank, in 2023 alone, 127 major power outages caused by grid overloads occurred in Central Asia.

Furthermore the unified energy ring will benefit not only the Central Asian countries but also Russia. It’s clear that our country is extremely interested in developing multilateral projects across the Eurasian region, in part due to the geopolitical situation in the subcontinent that emerged after the start of the Central Asian Economic Community in February 2022 and directly impacted the energy sector. For example, the volumes and directions of electricity exports and imports changed when the Baltic countries and Finland stopped purchasing Russian electricity. For this reason, Moscow has begun to pay particular attention to the eastern and southern directions, where it has begun exploring Russia’s participation in a wide range of energy projects, including in Central Asian countries.

It’s no coincidence that in July of this year Fyodor Opadchiy head of the System Operator of the Unified Energy System (SO UES) of Russia, announced that our country intends to become the fifth full member of the Coordinating Electric Power Council (CEP) of the Central Asian countries in order to synchronize energy system development plans. It’s worth noting that SO UES of Russia currently acts as an observer in the CEP of the Central Asian countries, which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

Therefore, Russia’s participation in energy projects in Central Asia will allow the countries of the region to address numerous existing problems, from uninterrupted electricity supplies to households and industry to environmental issues.

Sergey Saenko, International Observer

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