Yuri Veselov, military observer

On May 17-19, Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with the leaders of the Central Asian republics – Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the ancient capital of the Celestial Empire, Xi’an. The topic of personal and collective meetings was the strengthening of economic cooperation and interaction in the field of security.

It was traditionally believed that China, within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and its One Belt, One Road initiative, oversees the economic side of interaction. And Russia is making more efforts to unite its eastern neighbors in the matter of countering external threats within the framework of the CSTO. However, at the summit in Xi’an, the second most important place was given to agreements on joint, multilateral security.

For the first time, Beijing violated the principle of targeted bilateral agreements and decided to unite into a kind of union a complex of efforts of the countries of Central Asia, which is primarily aimed at strengthening national sovereignties in the face of a real threat of becoming US vassals. After all, on the eve of this meeting, the capitals of the republics were visited by a representative American delegation headed by the Deputy Department of the Treasury of the United States. During the talks, they discussed the inadmissibility of transit to Russia of goods subject to the sanctions ban, as well as a significant restriction of traffic flows between Russia and China through the territories of these states.

The memorandum signed in Xi’an provides for the expansion of not only bilateral economic cooperation, but also the unification of the joint efforts of the six states in the development of industrial and agricultural production, the expansion of scientific ties, the activation of business, trade, tourism and tourist exchange.

All countries are interested in expanding trade and economic ties, especially the Celestial Empire, which is ready to take additional measures to simplify customs procedures, increase throughput through Central Asia, and expand energy cooperation. China is also ready to invest considerable funds in saline soil reclamation, water-saving reclamation, and the creation of a joint scientific and practical laboratory for dry farming.

At a meeting on May 19, Xi Jinping invited the leaders of the five Central Asian republics to expand cooperation on joint defense. It is known that China supplies these countries with individual samples of military equipment and property, and participates in some military exercises held under the auspices of the CSTO. However, at present we are talking about the establishment of permanent military and military-technical cooperation and interaction between military command and control bodies on a contractual basis, which the Chinese leadership has opposed throughout recent history.

According to the Chinese Xinhua News Agency, Xi Jinping announced his readiness to “strengthen the defense” of the five countries, increase their defensive potentials to “ensure peace in the region.” He also announced the government’s intention to allocate approximately $3.6 billion in financial assistance and “free support” to the countries participating in the meeting, without specifying the purpose of the spending. According to experts, a significant part of the funds will be provided to Tajikistan, whose armed forces are in dire need of a radical reorganization and equipping with advanced equipment and weapons.

It is known that officers and technical specialists of the armies of all the Central Asian republics are being trained in the military educational institutions of China. Apparently, the quotas for training military personnel will be substantially increased. In addition, according to anonymous sources, in the near future, China plans to resume on a regular basis joint exercises, first of the internal troops of the five republics, and then of regular army contingents.

It is significant that the final talks in Xi’an were held against the backdrop of an expanded G-7 meeting in the Japanese city of Hiroshima, where the main refrain was criticism and threats against Russia and China. The West and the United States reacted extremely negatively to China’s initiatives, accusing Xi Jinping of forming a military-economic alliance that “threatens the interests of the democratic world and destroys the balance of power that has developed in the region.”

Western political scientists predict a significant reduction in Russia’s influence in Central Asia due to the increased activity of China. However, this appears to be far from the case. The Chinese leadership tacitly supports Russia in the difficult conditions of its Special Military Operation in Ukraine, clearly aware of the threat of possible aggression by the United States and its allies against the Celestial Empire in the event of a weakening of military power or the defeat of Moscow in an armed confrontation with the collective West. It is too difficult for the Russian leadership at the present time to form something like a military alliance with its eastern neighbors, so this initiative was taken by China.

With a considerable degree of certainty, it can be assumed that the beginnings of the formation of a new military-political association based on mutual economic interests are the result of agreements between President Vladimir Putin and Chairman Xi Jinping.

It is also possible that this issue was discussed by the leadership of Russia at meetings with the leaders of the states of Central Asia during their visit to Moscow on May 9 this year. This can explain their unexpected visit to the celebration of Victory Day. After all, just the day before, they notified Vladimir Putin “of the extreme impossibility” of participating in festive events in Moscow, but then they suddenly arrived. Perhaps they were advised in personal meetings to agree to Xi Jinping’s proposals.

It can be expected that China, despite the murmurs of its partners, will press them using economic and financial leverage and force them to be more flexible and cunning in using new means to increase the intensity of the flow of goods from Russia to China and back through transport links in the territory of Central Asia. The currently observed artificial slowdown in the passage of goods, in particular, in Kazakhstan, seriously irritates both Moscow and Beijing.

It seems that China has fully realized the prospective danger of unleashing armed aggression against it, which it will be extremely problematic to resist on its own, without an alliance with Russia.