Nikolai Bobkin, political scientist, Institute of the USA and Canada. Academician G.A. Arbatov

On April 18, 2023, a member of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, Defense Minister General Li Shangfu held talks in Moscow with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. The parties reaffirmed the firm support of each other in matters of protecting sovereignty and territorial integrity, and resolutely opposed external interference in internal affairs. The heads of the military departments agreed to implement the decisions reached by the leaders of the two countries on expanding cooperation in the Pacific theater of operations in order to maintain global and regional security.

The outcome of the talks confirmed that despite the fact that Moscow and Beijing have so far avoided a formal defense alliance, they have deep military ties and commitments in the defense sphere. During the visit, General Li Shangfu was received in the Kremlin by President Putin, who noted that our countries are working as actively in the military departments as in all areas within the framework of strong strategic cooperation. The President emphasized the significance of the ongoing joint exercises, which are a demonstration of the breadth and depth of Chinese-Russian military cooperation.

Bilateral relations in the field of defense are primarily manifested in three broad areas of interaction: military contacts at the highest level, military-technical cooperation, and joint military exercises. Of the three categories, exercises are perhaps the most important in today’s military-political environment. Unlike Russian arms sales to China, which have had their ups and downs, the exercise has been a constant focus of the Sino-Russian defense partnership for more than a decade.

Importantly, they are aimed at increasing interoperability, which is of particular importance in a situation where the Chinese army is adopting an increasing number of modern domestic-made weapons, which alienates the two armies from their common Soviet roots. The level of complexity of the tasks solved during the joint exercises has reached such a level that some analysts argue that these relations represent a “de facto military alliance”.

From a diplomatic point of view, participation in these exercises allows the governments of the two countries to express mutual support without avoiding regional hot spots. For Russia, this is important in relation to Japan, Beijing thus restrains the United States in its attempts to take Taiwan under its protection. As long as China and Russia remain confrontational with the US, there is a high likelihood that they will continue to conduct frequent joint exercises. Compatibility becomes a key to allowing the two armies to work effectively together against a common adversary, with the main threat perceived by Beijing and Moscow being the US-led Western Bloc backed by Japan.

Given the general perception of threats, it can be assumed that the military departments of the two countries are coordinating their efforts in conducting unilateral exercises. This can be judged by the timing of the exercises conducted in April this year. For example, in response to an April 5 meeting between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and Speaker of the US House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy, China held a three-day Joint Sword exercise in and around the Taiwan Strait. Chinese warships, including an aircraft carrier, and aircraft were sent close to the island to conduct air and sea blockade exercises and simulated pinpoint strikes.

China announced the end of the exercises on April 10, and from April 14 to 18, all the assets of the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Navy were put on high alert and began the first stage of a major unscheduled exercise to test combat readiness with the participation of more than 25 thousand people and 167 ships. Preventing enemy penetration into the southern part of the Sea of Okhotsk and repelling enemy landings on Sakhalin Island and the southern Kuril Islands were the key stages of the exercise.

Both Russian and Chinese exercises took place at a time of high tensions with NATO. The leadership of the bloc is preparing plans for the simultaneous participation of the alliance in several conflicts, including conflicts that go beyond its traditional areas of responsibility, including the Pacific theater of operations. The expansion of the alliance’s military presence in East Asia is aimed not only at Russia, but also at China. Most recently, air operations were conducted against the Chinese navy and coastal installations with the participation of the United States, Great Britain and Australia.

The US Indo-Pacific Command is seeking to strengthen Washington’s ability to contain Beijing, including new weapons, new infrastructure, and closer relations with allies in the region. American actions stretch from Japan to the Solomon Islands. These have recently included increasingly advanced military exercises in the region and additional troop rotations in key areas adjacent to the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.

Washington is increasing the deployment of advanced military assets on the Korean Peninsula, including fighter jets and aircraft carriers. The US and Japan agreed to increase the presence of US troops on the island of Okinawa to strengthen the anti-ship capabilities that would be required in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or other actions in the south or east of the East China Sea.

The Philippines last month gave the US access to four more military bases and also agreed to a series of small and large joint exercises in 2023. On the diplomatic front, Washington opened an embassy in the Solomon Islands in a direct attempt to counter Beijing’s growing influence there.

Beijing’s response tactics involve expanding peaceful cooperation using its trade and economic presence, increased investment, and ties with diasporas and local elites. At the same time, while Beijing is making vigorous efforts in the field of soft power to contain the growing influence of America, the likelihood of using hard power is increasing, and an armed conflict with the United States is not excluded. Under these conditions, it becomes strategically beneficial for China to explicitly strengthen its military ties with Russia in order to strengthen the deterrence of the US and its allies.

A stronger Sino-Russian military relationship, potentially reaching the level of a formal alliance, will improve the ability of Beijing and Moscow to mount a coordinated countermeasure against the United States. This growing alliance between America’s two military adversaries has the potential to reshape the global order and go a long way in containing the escalation of tensions around the world.