Sergey Saenko, international observer

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (hereinafter referred to as CSTO) is a military-political alliance created by the CIS states to stabilize the situation in partner countries in the event of an emergency. The priority of the Union is not military, but political means of achieving peace. However, the Charter of the Organization allows the use of the military and peacekeeping forces of the CSTO partners – but only on the territories of the participating countries and only upon their prior request. At the same time, peacekeepers – their number now stands at 3.6 thousand people – do not stay in the country for an indefinite period, but leave it immediately after the completion of the mission. In this, as Moscow has repeatedly stated, the CSTO differs significantly from other alliances.

It can be said without exaggeration that CSTO, which today includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan, has been a guarantor of security and stability both in the post-Soviet space and throughout Eurasia for more than 20 years. Since January of this year, the chairmanship in the CSTO has passed from Armenia to Belarus. In Minsk, the main priorities of the country’s chairmanship in the Organization are increasing the cohesion of the member states and strengthening the positions of the CSTO in the system of international relations. According to the Belarusian side, this is what is extremely important now.

At the same time, Minsk, according to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, plans to concentrate its efforts on improving the legal framework of the CSTO and the national legislation of the member states, which is necessary for quick decision-making on the use of collective security forces and means. In addition, the procedure for the transit of military contingents and military equipment through the territories of CSTO states should be simplified.

Another planned area of cooperation is to increase the prestige of the Organization and build up interaction with other international organizations and with third countries. In order to achieve success in this area, the Belarusian leadership proposes to hold a high-level international conference on Eurasian security issues in Minsk in 2023 and invite top officials of the secretariats of the UN, SCO, CIS and other international organizations to it. In addition, during its presidency, Minsk intends to initiate the CSTO-PRC Strategic Dialogue, as well as possible cooperation with India. In addition, Belarus intends to increase the combat readiness of the components of CSTO collective forces, as well as to strengthen military-technical cooperation. In particular, three out of four exercises of the Organization are planned to be held in the country this year.

In turn, the new Secretary General of the Union, the representative of Kazakhstan, Imangali Tasmagambetov, who replaced the Belarusian Stanislav Zasj, believes that today the CSTO countries will have to solve very complex political, economic and other problems. At the same time, in his opinion, in the conditions of geopolitical crises, there is no alternative for the Organization, since it is able to adequately respond to modern challenges. According to Tasmagambetov, he intends to keep in close contact with representatives of the authorities of Belarus, which chairs the CSTO in 2023.

So, already in the first days of his duties on January 10 of this year, he held a meeting with the State Secretary of the Security Council of the Republic Alexander Volfovich, during which they exchanged views on the current situation in the CSTO area of responsibility, discussed current challenges and threats in the East European, Caucasian and Central Asian regions of collective security. In addition, attention was paid to the coordination of efforts to implement the priority areas of the Organization’s activities this year.

Of course, it will not be easy for both Imangali Tasmagambetov and the presiding Belarus to work this year, since they will have to constantly look for a balance between the interests of various CSTO member states, which have recently begun to sometimes come into direct conflict with each other. The example of Armenia’s controversial presidency in 2022 is a clear confirmation of this. In this regard, obviously, one of the main tasks of Belarus and Tasmagambetov will be the strengthening of the internal organizational unity of CSTO.

In particular, it is necessary to develop certain de-escalation mechanisms to normalize relations between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, since their disagreements not only lead to bloody clashes at the border, but also harm the image of CSTO, and also paralyze its work in certain areas. Suffice it to recall the cancellation of the exercises Indestructible Brotherhood – 2022 in October last year on Kyrgyz territory, which was actually due to the unwillingness of the country’s leadership to invite Tajik military personnel. Apparently, something will need to be devised to remove the concerns that Yerevan has accumulated in recent years due to the lack of support from the CSTO in the form in which it was waiting for it in the confrontation with Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Otherwise, Minsk and the new CSTO Secretary General will work within the classical agenda, which is associated with the need to respond to such threats as terrorism, drug trafficking, illegal migration, cybercrime, cross-border crime. At the same time, it must be remembered that the main decisions are made by the heads of the member states of the Organization, so the fate of the most important changes will depend primarily on them.

It should be noted that until recently, many Western observers, primarily in NATO countries, believed that CSTO was some kind of amorphous association of several former Soviet republics. However, January 2022 showed that this was not the case. Recall that in January last year, the Organization managed to effectively counter threats to the sovereignty and integrity of Kazakhstan. Then CSTO peacekeeping forces (mainly consisting of Russian units), at the request of the head of state Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, were brought into the territory of this country and quickly took control of strategic facilities, which helped the Kazakh authorities restore constitutional order in the republic.

In this regard, many politicians and experts started talking about using CSTO forces in Moscow’s special military operation (SVO) in Ukraine. So far, all the countries of the Organization, with the exception of Belarus, are trying to “stay away” from the NWO. It is no coincidence that in this regard, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko recently called on CSTO members not to turn away from the Ukrainian conflict. Thus, last month he announced the need for the Organization’s member countries to unite, since it is always easier to act together. Speaking about the Ukrainian conflict, President Lukashenko, with his characteristic frankness, said that it would not be possible to “sit quietly”.

“If someone thinks that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is not our conflict, that we will sit quietly somewhere, nothing like that will happen. The time will come, it is not far away, literally tomorrow – it will require to be determined, to take a certain position. I’m not saying that to the detriment of national interests and so on,” the Belarusian leader said on February 13 at a meeting with CSTO Secretary General Tasmagambetov.

True, in fairness it should be noted that earlier Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia did not ask for help in the special operation from CSTO countries. But be that as it may, it is quite obvious that the non-use of the Organization’s forces in the NWO raises many questions. It is no coincidence that in this regard, Alexander Lukashenko connected the future fate of the Organization with the success of Russia’s special operation in Ukraine. “If it wins, the CSTO will live. If it does not win, CSTO will not exist. I feel that we have come to a common opinion that if, God forbid, Russia collapses and then under this rubble is our place,” said the President of Belarus.