Yuri Tavrovsky, Chairman of the Council of Experts, Russian-Chinese Committee for Friendship, Peace and Development

In the history of China, which is 5000 years, 50 centuries long, an unprecedentedly important period of 20 years, two decades is unfolding. The 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China, which began on October 16, will last a week and take stock of the first decade of Xi Jinping’s rule. The 2,296 delegates elected from 100 million members of the Communist Party will discuss and approve the road map for the next five years and elect Xi Jinping as the General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee for the third time.

Most likely, the decision to finally abandon the temporary restrictions on the leadership of the party will also entail a fourth five-year term for President Xi at the top of power. In 2032, when the 22nd Congress of the CCP is due to take place, Xi Jinping, who was born in 1953, will be “only” 79 years old. Mao Zedong lived for 83 years (1893-1976) and until his last day, although he was not engaged in the daily activities of the party apparatus and the army, he determined the main directions of development and influenced important personnel decisions. Deng Xiaoping lived for 83 years (1904-1997) and, even after leaving all official posts after the events on Tiananmen Square, he remained the arbiter of the fate of the Celestial Empire through his nominees in key political positions.

The second decade is practically provided for Xi Jinping as the leader of the Communists and the entire Chinese nation, equal to the other two leaders – Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. Like his great predecessors, President Xi has set a long-term goal for the Celestial Empire and is confidently leading his people to achieve it. Mao unified China and put it on the rails of socialism. Deng took over the leadership of a country that was on the verge of collapse as a result of Mao’s deviation from the main path and indulgence in the heresies of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. He developed a strategy of “reform and opening up”, which after completion became known as “socialism with Chinese characteristics” and provided a fantastic breakthrough for the PRC to the status of a great power.

Xi Jinping’s long-term plan is called the “China Dream” (in full “The Great Dream of the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation”), and making the dream a reality by 2049 is designed to ensure at least equal standing with America and other world leaders. This plan was announced at the very end of 2012, right after the 18th CCP Congress. The stages of this 37-year relay race have been determined. In 2021, when 100 years have passed since the founding of the Communist Party, all the goals of the first stage were achieved. The main one is the creation of a middle-income society “Xiaokang”. China is completely out of poverty; managed to pull the last 100 million poor people out of a deplorable state. The per capita income of the Chinese has doubled. The middle class has grown to 450 million people. China’s GDP has doubled. These successes have been achieved despite the COVID-19 pandemic and the cold war waged by envious America.

At the 20^th Congress there will be a lot of talk about these great and lesser successes. But, most importantly, we will talk about the next decade. Even at the previous, XIX Congress of the CPC in 2017, the next stage was outlined – until 2035 “mainly to carry out socialist modernization.” By that time, the per capita income of citizens and the GDP of the state will have to be doubled again. At the same time, the decision to lift the temporary restrictions for the General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee was announced for the first time. The logic is clear – the author’s project should be executed by the author, especially since he clearly possesses all the necessary talents of both an architect and a foreman.

The second decade for Xi Jinping and the Chinese people he leads will be harder than the first. The Cold War is intensifying. America recently officially designated China as the main adversary in the new Security Strategy. The COVID-19 pandemic continues, the virus mutates and forces multi-million cities and entire provinces to be condemned to strict quarantine, breaking production and supply chains. In the context of the inevitable slowdown in the economy, it is necessary to prevent the return to poverty of the poor, who have just emerged from this state. It is necessary to solve or weaken the problem of 280 million migrants – residents of lagging provinces, looking for work in highly developed cities and agreeing to low wages and the absence of medical care and other social benefits for urban residents with “hukou”, registration. The 600 million people who have long been out of poverty but have not reached the level of the “middle class” are patiently waiting for an improvement in their lives. Despite the obvious improvement in the environment, it is necessary to take new painful steps towards the transition to “clean” energy sources. Yes, and the aging of society, unemployment among young people require constant attention and costs.

In the course and after the end of the 20th Congress, we will learn a lot about the real state of affairs in the Celestial Empire. The party speaks quite frankly with the people. We will also learn about new development guidelines for the next 5 and 10 years. But already from a few recent orientation articles by Xi Jinping in party theoretical journals, from the materials of the recent 7^th Plenum of the CPC Central Committee, one can guess the main decisions of the congress. They will be aimed at continuing the strategy of the “Chinese Dream of the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation”. The center of gravity of the economy will continue to shift from export orientation to the domestic market.

Last year’s slogan of “common prosperity” will take on a new meaning, which provides for narrowing the gap in income and lifestyle, pacifying the appetites of monopolists and increasing support for small and medium businesses, crowding out alien moral and cultural values. The “hunting for tigers and flies” will not subside – the identification and punishment of large and small corrupt officials from among the members of the Communist Party and officials. More attention and funds will be given to strengthening the defense capability of the Celestial Empire in the face of the encirclement of the country by hostile blocs and bases, provoking a fratricidal war between the Chinese from both sides of the Taiwan Strait.

But, perhaps, the most important thing will be the strengthening of the planned economy, socialism, in its present peaceful coexistence with the market economy, capitalism. One can hardly expect restrictions on the entrepreneurial spirit and deeds – why kill the “goose that lays the golden eggs?” At the last congress it was said that the market segment provides 60% of GDP, provides 80% of jobs, more than half of taxes. On the other hand, great and favorable changes can take place in the distribution of national wealth.

For Russia, the decisions of the 20^th Congress will be of great importance. We need the stability and power of our strategic partner more than ever in the conditions of hostilities in Ukraine. In an effort to maintain its global hegemony, the United States created two fronts of the Cold War – western and eastern, against Russia and against China. Only the coincidence of national security interests and the coordination of the efforts of our countries will allow Moscow and Beijing to avoid confrontation with the collective West one on one.