Stanislav Ivanov, Leading Researcher, Center for International Security, IMEMO RAS, PhD (Historical Sciences)

Now it is difficult to determine the roots and origins of the Kazakh rebellion, who initiated it, and how the spontaneous protest of the population against the increase in gas prices soon turned into riots and acts of violence. It seems that an attempt was made in the country for an apex coup or a redistribution of spheres of influence in politics and the economy. It is possible that the goal of the conspirators was to remove President Tokayev from power or weaken his position.

The latter is supported by the inactivity of the National Security Committee (KNB) and all other power structures of Kazakhstan in these anxious January days of 2022. It is no coincidence that Tokayev was forced to seek help not from his special services, police and military, but from the leadership of the CSTO and Russia.

The arrival of the CSTO military contingent had a sobering effect not only on the marauders and rioters, but also on those who stood behind them. Protest actions began to decline, all strategically important objects were taken under the control of the arrived military. Literally a few days later, Tokayev announced the completion of the CSTO mission, announced the timing of the withdrawal of its military contingent from the country and a number of important personnel and other decisions.

The leadership of the KNB was arrested, a new prime minister and a number of ministers were appointed, a five-year salary freeze for civil servants was announced, the local rich and oligarchs were asked to share their excess income with the poorest segments of the population, etc. It is expected that the level of corruption in the country will noticeably decrease.

It is noteworthy that the formal leader of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, with his large family and retinue disappeared from the country and the media space with the beginning of the unrest. Information is being disseminated in the media about key industries and natural resources of the country controlled by this family, multi-billion dollar accounts in foreign banks, luxury real estate in London, Dubai, Vienna, and other world capitals, which allegedly belong to Nazarbayev’s daughters, sons-in-law, grandchildren. It is no coincidence that the protesters toppled the statues of Elbasy (the leader of the nation) from the pedestals and demanded that the state apparatus be cleared of his relatives.

To date, the main beneficiary or beneficiary of the past rebellion has been President Tokayev, who replaced Nazarbayev on January 5, 2022, as chairman of the Security Council of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Thus, an important step was taken towards the elimination of the vicious system of dual power in the country that had developed in previous years, when Tokayev was limited in making important decisions by the lifelong chairmanship of Nazarbayev as chairman of the Security Council.

Obviously, with the withdrawal of the CSTO contingent in Kazakhstan, government reforms and, possibly, a redistribution of property will continue. The local elites and clans are likely to regroup and adapt to their actions under the new conditions of Tokayev’s now sole presidency. As for the foreign policy and foreign economic course of Kazakhstan, it is likely to continue. Russia will remain the country’s priority partner for the time being (common extended border, close economic ties, cooperation within the framework of the CSTO, the SCO and the EAEU, etc.). In terms of total trade turnover, Russia remains the largest trading partner of Kazakhstan ($18.2 billion a year), mainly due to the export of its products to this republic ($13.3 billion).

But the previously taken course of diversifying Kazakhstan’s relations with other countries will also continue. First of all, with China, which already now confidently occupies a solid niche in the economy of Kazakhstan. In 2020, Kazakh exports to China reached $9 billion and consisted mainly of oil, gas, copper and other industrial metals. China ranks second after Russia in this indicator with $15.3 billion, but is ahead of Russia in terms of direct investment in the Kazakh economy ($5.2 billion versus $4.8 billion). The real volume of these investments is much higher, since most of them pass through offshore, including European, jurisdictions. During a visit to China two years ago, Tokayev said that over the years of independence, China has invested about $20 billion in direct investment in Kazakhstan. In April of the same year, at the One Belt, One Road forum in Beijing, an agreement was signed on the implementation of 55 projects for Kazakhstan in the amount of $27.6 billion. It should be borne in mind that Tokayev worked for a long time at the USSR Embassy in China and is considered an expert on this country.

Drifting Kazakhstan and in the western direction. Trade, economic and other relations with the USA, EU countries and Turkey are developing. Deputies of the Majilis (lower house) of the Parliament of Kazakhstan recently at a plenary session approved a bill on the ratification of an intergovernmental agreement with the United States on improving international tax discipline. In total, more than 70 documents of various levels have already been concluded between Kazakhstan and the United States.

The European Union is also an important trade and investment partner for Kazakhstan, successfully competing and competing with Russia and China.

Relations between Kazakhstan and Turkey are also developing, with plans to increase the volume of bilateral trade from $3 billion to $5 billion a year in the short term and up to $10 billion in subsequent years.

In general, Tokayev, as an international specialist with great experience and authority (former UN Deputy Secretary General, Chairman of the Councils of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the CIS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization), will pay considerable attention to strengthening Kazakhstan’s position in the international arena and developing foreign economic relations with traditional and new partners.