In the context of the confrontation between Russia and the West, Astana is finding it increasingly difficult to maintain equidistance in its foreign policy

 After the collapse of the USSR the Anglo-Saxons began to view the new post-Soviet states from the same perspective as the countries of Africa – as their own colonies with no prospects for development. One of them was the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) which is rich in natural resources.

After the Republic gained independence, representatives of numerous transnational corporations immediately poured into it with ready-made projects of agreements on the division of extracted products, according to which they were entitled to the lion’s share, and Kazakhstan – only crumbs for the people and the enrichment of the country’s elite.

In the 1990’s under pompous speeches about democracy, a market economy and other things hitherto unknown to the residents of the RK as well as for considerable bribes to representatives of the political elite, Western emissaries achieved the signing of these agreements. And on their basis, they continue to export Kazakhstan’s natural resources to this day, continuing to promise technology, industrialization and a bright future in return. Note that more than thirty years have passed since then, and this bright future has not yet arrived. On the contrary, with each passing day, ordinary Kazakhstanis are increasingly inclined to believe that they were deceived and simply taken for a ride. Moreover, the number of pompous slogans is not decreasing, while life is becoming more expensive almost every month.

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev who received full power in the republic in January 2022, was received by the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan with great enthusiasm. Tokayev himself, sensing the people’s mood, made encouraging and promising statements one after another. In particular, he announced the need to revise contracts with Western transnational companies that extract energy resources in the country and take the lion’s share of them for themselves. Meanwhile, note that according to paragraph 3 of Article 6 of the Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan, “the land and its subsoil, water, flora and fauna, and other natural resources belong to the people”.

Three years have passed since Tokayev made those promises, but no serious steps have been taken to improve the situation. Moreover, the Kazakh authorities continue to hand over more and more deposits to the Anglo-Saxons. Thus, in March 2024, it was announced that Astana was granting the UK the right to explore and extract critical minerals. The corresponding “road map” was signed in London by the Minister of Industry and Economic Security of the United Kingdom Nusrat Ghani and the Vice Minister of Industry and Construction of the Republic of Kazakhstan Iran Sharhan.

It is noteworthy that on the day of signing this document, a meeting of the Kazakh delegation with representatives of Astra Mining was organized. By the way, in addition to this company, other British companies have also set their sights on Kazakh resources. In particular, Ferro-Alloy Resources Group and British Petroleum, which are already operating in the republic and Pensana. In total according to open data today over 550 British companies and firms operate in Kazakhstan in the fields of production, technology, trade, science and finance.

The United States, Canada, Japan and the European Union are not far behind Great Britain. Let us recall that in Kazakhstan, in addition to oil, gas, lithium and other critical minerals, uranium is also mined. And this is a strategic raw material. Moreover, the republic recently signed new contracts with several American companies for the extraction of all these resources. Many American companies such as Chevron Corporation and ExxonMobil have been operating in Kazakhstan for several years but the United States we must assume will not stop there. This can be confirmed by the fact that on Capitol Hill, already under the inauguration of President Donald Trump, calls have been heard to repeal the Jackson-Vanik Amendment for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. This potentially historic decision can reshape the geopolitical landscape of the region, offering new opportunities and creating new challenges.

Despite the fact that the West is increasingly conquering Kazakhstan and does not hide the fact that its main goal is to tear Astana away from Moscow the Kazakh authorities do not seem to be going to reconsider their romantic attitude towards it. It implies specifically towards the United States and Britain. Otherwise, how can one explain the above-mentioned “road map” with London on “strategic partnership in the field of critical minerals”, as well as the comprehensive agreement on strategic partnership, trade and cooperation signed in Astana in April 2024 by the heads of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan and Great Britain Murat Nurtleu and David Cameron. Considering that Washington and London actively support Ukraine in the war against Russia, and Astana is its ally in the CSTO and partner in the EAEU, such rapprochement raises a lot of questions.

Yes, the President of Kazakhstan Tokayev has repeatedly stated that the republic is pursuing a multi-vector foreign policy, which allows Astana to successfully develop relations with both the West and China and Russia. However, in an interview with the Egemen Qazaqstan newspaper on January 3, 2024, he noted: “In the current geopolitical conditions, Kazakhstan needs to develop mutually beneficial cooperation with all foreign partners, primarily neighbors. And the closest ones for Kazakhstan are Russia and China”. If so then logically the leadership of the republic should give priority in developing relations not with London and Washington, but with Moscow and Beijing.

However, in reality, official Astana’s words do not always coincide with real deeds. Suffice it to recall that during a meeting in Washington in March last year between then US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and his Kazakh counterpart Murat Nurtleu, the latter, in addition to developing deposits, also proposed that the Americans take control of the republic’s transport potential. In practice, this means laying the so-called Middle Corridor (bypassing Russia), which will be the main route for delivering resources from Kazakhstan to the West. It is assumed that it will go along the Caspian Sea, through Azerbaijan, Georgia and further through the Black Sea.

Kazakhstan’s position on joining BRICS, which is a potential new center of global economic power, is not entirely clear. Kazakhstan is in no hurry to apply for membership in this association. It is believed that Astana’s contradictory statements on this issue are due to internal political struggle, as well as strong pressure from the West. As noted above, Kazakhstan is currently actively selling its rare earth metal resources and is also looking for new sources of gas. This sector is already partially controlled by American companies, which naturally increases external pressure on the republic. Moreover, Kazakhstan’s budget is heavily dependent on the oil and gas sector, which is largely owned by Western companies, so Astana, according to experts, is forced to maneuver and has chosen a wait-and-see position regarding joining BRICS.

Without a doubt we are more interested in Russian-Kazakh relations. Cooperation between the two countries is based on the Treaty of Eternal Friendship and Cooperation concluded between Russia and Kazakhstan in 1998. In addition, the relations between the leaders of the two states, Putin and Tokayev, remain quite positive, which allows them to find a common language on many fundamental issues.

It is important to note another point that is often overlooked: it was at Tokayev’s request that CSTO (read Russia’s) troops were brought into Kazakhstan in January 2022 to prevent a coup d’etat. This should be taken into account in the context of our relations. Thus, even in the presence of certain problems related to the economy, customs space or border cooperation, Moscow and Astana, apparently, will find a common language in the future.

This can be confirmed by the state visit of President Putin to Kazakhstan at the end of November 2024, during which he held talks with his Kazakh counterpart Tokayev. It was during this visit of Vladimir Putin to Kazakhstan that the parties confirmed the strategic nature of the bilateral partnership. And how strong this partnership will be – the future will show.

Sergey Saenko,
International observer

A source