Sergey Saenko, international observer

Strengthening ties between Russia and Kazakhstan is an absolute priority for the two countries. Prime Ministers Mikhail Mishustin and Alikhan Smailov came to this conclusion during talks held in February on the sidelines of a meeting of the Intergovernmental Council of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in Almaty. It is noteworthy that the statement of the heads of government of the two countries was made after the announcement of the closure of the trade mission of Kazakhstan in Russia.

In the expert community, this decision of the Kazakh government was regarded as Astana’s next step towards the West and the desire to avoid secondary sanctions against Russia. In turn, Deputy Prime Minister – Minister of Finance of Kazakhstan Yerulan Zhamaubayev told reporters that this decision is primarily due to the optimization of administrative structures and the development of work within the Eurasian Economic Commission, which allows Moscow and Astana to conduct full-fledged interaction. We note, by the way, that Mishustin and Smailov did not publicly discuss this issue, but focused on joint projects, summed up the results of 2022, and, apparently, were satisfied.

Thus, Alikhan Smailov noted that economic cooperation is progressively developing between the countries, mutual trade is growing and joint projects are being implemented – a total of 26 almost $ 1 billion. In addition, 84 more large projects worth almost $ 23 billion are being implemented or are being developed, with the creation of 24 thousand workers places. For his part, Mikhail Mishustin said that the leaders and governments of the two countries are in constant contact and solve the most important tasks of interstate cooperation in real time. According to him, strengthening relations with Kazakhstan is an absolute priority for Russia, and cooperation between the two countries is based on the principles of friendship, strategic partnership and alliance.

Of course, Kazakhstan is one of Russia’s main partners in the post-Soviet space, and bilateral ties are developing quite successfully. At the same time, in relations between Moscow and Astana, one cannot ignore the events that took place in Kazakhstan in 2022. Last year began in the country not easy – with an attempted coup, which was successfully prevented with the help of the peacekeeping forces of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). “Bloody January” on the 22^nd, as it was dubbed in Kazakhstan, divided the life of Kazakhstanis into “before” and “after”. It was after this event that the era of ex-president Nursultan Nazarbayev was destroyed, and a new future has not yet been built.

Having survived the catastrophe, Kazakhstan has chosen a new vector of development. Several important events took place in the republic at once: amendments were made to the Constitution, early presidential elections were held. The country’s leadership realized that in order to create a new one, you need to get rid of the old. In this regard, President Tokayev declared war on everything that connected the republic with the previous system: nepotism, oligarchs and corruption. The key idea of all reforms is to move from a super-presidential form of government to a republic with a strong parliament. Tokayev is convinced that this will prevent a repetition of the events of January 2022.

It should be noted that residents of the neighboring post-Soviet republics of Central Asia (CA) look at what is happening in Kazakhstan in different ways: some with distrust, and some with envy. It is true to say that over the past year the life of ordinary Kazakhstanis has changed a lot, it is still too early. At the same time, they live in the country with the hope that there will be improvements, and they are especially related to the return of withdrawn capital to the country and the implementation of Tokayev’s election program, in which a serious revision of social policy occupies a significant place along with political reforms. Among the expectations are proposals for reforms, primarily in the field of education and healthcare. The latter area, as the COVID-19 pandemic has shown, requires major improvements.

It is no secret that the conflict over Ukraine has become a big test for the economies of Russia’s neighbors. Kazakhstan is no exception in this regard. The tenge exchange rate depends on two factors: oil quotes and the value of the ruble. Following the collapse of the Russian currency, the Kazakh currency also went down. However, as events unfolded, Kazakhstan was able to get out of the situation even in a positive way. Some foreign companies, including Honeywell and Emerson, have moved to the country from Russia. Chinese carmaker Great Wall Motors, German trailer farm equipment manufacturer Reimann and Dutch biofertilizer manufacturer Koppert have opened or are about to open factories.

The Russian law on the legalization of parallel imports also played a significant role. Both countries are members of the EAEU, so goods inaccessible to Russians due to Western sanctions began to enter our country through Kazakhstan: iPhones, laptops, cars, including luxury Bentley and Tesla, branded bags, sneakers. As a result, over the past year, Kazakhstani exports of goods increased by 8.6% – Astana became the leader in parallel imports to Russia among the EAEU countries.

Sometimes, we note, the entrepreneurial spirit of Kazakhstanis runs counter to the desire of President Tokayev not to fall under secondary sanctions, and for this reason, the Kazakh authorities have recently been increasingly talking about tightening the rules for importing goods to Russia. In Kazakhstan, as well as in other Central Asian states, it is well understood that sanctions against Russia are not for a year or two, but for decades. Therefore, the state is rebuilding its economy, but taking into account that Russia is the main trading partner of Kazakhstan. In this regard, Astana will not be able to completely get away from Moscow, although it can be assumed that some kind of break in production chains will still occur.

Speaking about the foreign policy of Kazakhstan, it should be noted that back in the early 1990s, the then leader of the country, Nursultan Nazarbayev, proposed the concept of a multi-vector foreign policy. This implied the development of friendly and predictable relations with all states that play a significant role in world affairs and are of practical interest to Kazakhstan. Today, the republic manages to balance between Russia, China and the West, which is attributed personally to President Tokayev. After all, it is no coincidence that foreign policy is the strong point of the current head of state.

Experts point out that for the president of Kazakhstan, taking into account the current geopolitical situation in the world, the most important issue are relations with Russia. It is recognized that so far Tokayev has managed not to worsen these relations, relying on international norms. This allows, on the one hand, to slowly but gradually increase the distance in relations with Moscow. On the other hand, do not worsen them, at least without increasing the number of disagreements on various issues. Although it should be noted that there are still some problems in Russian-Kazakh relations. Astana, both under Nazarbayev and already under Tokayev, more than once openly demonstrated hostility, and sometimes even disrespect for Russia. At the same time, we note that Anglo-Saxons are always welcome in Kazakhstan.

Against this background, one can observe the activity of Astana in relations with the states of Central Asia and Turkey. Moreover, the emphasis is on equal partnerships. Experts note that under Tokayev, Kazakhstan is not trying to win over leadership and is not trying to play the role of “big brother”, as it was under President Nazarbayev. However, while developing relations with neighbors, President Tokayev does not forget about major players such as China, the United States, the European Union, using various diplomatic tools for this, and not just official visits. This indicates the professionalism of the country’s leadership and the existence of an independent foreign policy, which, of course, enhances the status of Kazakhstan in the international arena.