Bulatov, international observer

One of Asia’s largest lakes, the third largest in Eurasia and the 15^th largest in the world, Lake Balkhash, is at risk of extinction, with Kazakhstan planning to build its first nuclear power plant (NPP) on its western shores since the 1990’s. The lake is a reservoir for Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest and most populous city and the economic capital of Central Asia. Building a NPP on one of Kazakhstan’s key sources of drinking water could put a huge strain on an already problematic region. On January 3, 2024, Kazakh President Tokayev announced his support for a nationwide referendum on the construction of a NPP.

Currently, one in six Central Asians lives in areas at high risk of drought, and almost a third of the region’s population lacks access to safe drinking water. While addressing the lack of water resources should be a priority for the government, Kazakhstan is also struggling to address energy shortages. Energy security has a serious impact on the quality of life of its citizens. The country’s power grid experiences power outages every year, so Kazakhstan needs to find new sources to meet its growing energy demand.

In 2021, power outages hit Western Kazakhstan, resulting in the loss of more than 1,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity, as three power plants in Northeast Kazakhstan were disabled during an emergency. In January 2022, power outages hit major cities in Kazakhstan again due to an emergency imbalance in the power grid. These shortages and imbalances are expected to persist and worsen unless Kazakhstan modernizes its transmission network and increases capacity from new sources.

Over the past two decades, Kazakhstan has re-imagined, re-planned, and postponed its nuclear power plant plans due to various geopolitical and social circumstances. The project has yet to pass the feasibility tests, as its implementation is complicated by competition among potential reactor suppliers (China, Russia, France, and South Korea) and concerns about the environmental risks associated with the project’s location. Kazakhstan’s Soviet-era electricity infrastructure is in dire need of an upgrade. Adding nuclear energy to Kazakhstan’s energy mix would not only help modernize the infrastructure, but would also fit perfectly with Kazakhstan’s vision of becoming carbon neutral by 2060. In addition, cost-effective domestically produced nuclear energy could transform Kazakhstan from a Eurasian energy importer to a Eurasian energy supplier. A weak point of the nuclear power project is the potential to exacerbate the region’s existing water shortage.

Experts warned about the degradation of Lake Balkhash 20 years ago, when the construction of a nuclear power plant on its shores was first discussed at the Balkhash-2000 international environmental forum. Today, when the climate of Central Asia is becoming warmer and drier every year, the withdrawal of water from the lake for the construction of the nuclear power plant, combined with the water imbalance caused by pollution from the nuclear power plant, poses a significant risk to the ecosystem of the reservoir. This is not the first time that Lake Balkhash has been threatened. Although it has great economic value due to local fisheries and resorts, it is highly dependent on the climatic conditions of the upper reaches of the Ili River that feeds it. In the 1970s and 1980s, the closed-basin lake experienced an environmental crisis caused by the filling of the Kapchagai Reservoir, formed by a dam on the Ili River. This led to a decrease in the water level in the lake, an increase in its salinity and a loss of biodiversity. During the filling of the lake, the carp population dropped by about 90%, causing severe damage to the local fishing industry. Between 1972 and 2001, Lake Balkhash lost 150 square kilometers of water surface. Although the lake recovered in 2005, it faced a new problem.

The Ili River, which supplies 80% of Lake Balkhash’s water, is also the most fertile river in China’s Xinjiang region. Rice farming and industrial development in Xinjiang have led to a significant increase in water use. China is taking more water from the Ili than ever before and “plans to increase rice production” in Xinjiang. Although China also faces water shortages, it is not party to any international transboundary water agreements. Astana has set up a 20-member working group to negotiate with Beijing, but an agreement to maintain transboundary flow with Kazakhstan on the Ili River has yet to be reached. Under current conditions, consulting firm McKinsey estimates that “in 2030, Lake Balkhash will face a water shortage of 1.9 billion cubic meters.” Unfortunately, this would not be unprecedented for the region, as 11 of the 16 nearby lakes have already dried up. Lake Balkhash, which has an average depth of 6 meters, continues to shrink, posing a serious threat to the 3.3 million people living in the Balkhash basin, as well as to more than 60 plant species, 12 endangered bird species and six fish species found exclusively in the region.

As the world’s largest uranium producer, Kazakhstan has resources that can guarantee long-term energy security. On the other hand, many citizens and some experts are concerned about the consequences that the construction of nuclear power plants could cause. The city of Ulken, where a nuclear power plant has been planned since the 1980s, has found itself at the center of a national debate. Residents are concerned about the health risks. Local fishermen are worried about the future of their industry if the water level continues to fall. In the current circumstances, the decision to build a nuclear power plant on the shores of Lake Balkhash could, according to opponents of the project, lead to its demise. On the other hand, Kazakhstan is in dire need of a quick solution to the problem of energy supply, and the planned nuclear power plant will be able to meet 12 percent of the country’s total needs by 2035, i.e. produce 2,800 MW of electricity. The authorities have given the people of Kazakhstan the right to decide between energy security and the survival of one of Asia’s largest lakes in a national referendum scheduled to take place in the fall.