Stanislav Ivanov, Leading researcher at IMEMO RAS, Сandidate of Historical sciences

Since power in Afghanistan belongs to the leaders of the Taliban movement (banned in Russia), one would like to briefly remind you what it is. The movement arose in the 90’s of the last century on the basis of primitive religious schools – madrassas in the camps of Afghan refugees, mainly Pashtuns, in the border regions of Pakistan and soon acquired the character of a broad Islamist military-political movement. By 1996 the Taliban managed to seize power in Kabul and establish control over most of the country’s territory.

However in 2001 the so-called Northern Alliance with the support of the US and NATO defeated the Taliban. The pretext for Washington’s military intervention in Afghanistan’s internal affairs was the Taliban’s cooperation with the terrorist group Al-Qaeda (banned in Russia). This fact as well as the revealed acts of obscurantism and vandalism, murders of opponents of the regime, the violent imposition of Sharia norms, etc., forced the UN Security Council to include a number of DT functionaries in the list of terrorists, as well as to introduce various restrictive sanctions against DT.

In 2021 after the withdrawal of US and NATO troops the Taliban again seized power in the country, which became known as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The ongoing international sanctions against the Taliban regime, including frozen foreign assets, an economy and infrastructure destroyed by civil wars, and crop failures in recent years have all put the country on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe. In this situation, the new government of Afghanistan is trying to overcome the financial and economic difficulties that have arisen and to emerge from international isolation. Western countries are in no hurry to normalize relations with the new authorities in Kabul and prefer to remain only as observers. This is partly due to their inertia and doubts about the strength of the Taliban regime. Many Afghan officials from the previous administration and business representatives have emigrated to the United States and other Western countries.

Washington expected that after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, its place in the country would be taken by Islamabad. This was facilitated by the fact that Pakistan actually created the Taliban and, most importantly, largely contributed to its rise to power in August 2021. Mutual trade turnover between the two countries exceeded $1.5 billion, and both countries became interested in implementing large regional logistics projects. But everything turned out to be not so simple.

The Taliban leaders took a course towards independence in their foreign and domestic policies as a result Afghan-Pakistani relations became complicated. Islamabad insists on stopping the Afghan Taliban’s assistance to the Pakistani branch of the Taliban movement, and deports hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees from the country. The Afghan authorities, in turn, do not recognize the legitimacy of the Durand Line as a state border with Pakistan, believing that the Pashtun tribes should maintain traditional ties and contacts on both sides of the border. In September 2024 the situation reached border skirmishes and the use of heavy weapons in disputed areas of the border. The countries involved: China, India, Iran, Turkey and the Central Asian countries are trying to smooth out the contradictions that have arisen between Kabul and Islamabad in order to ensure stability and security in the region.

These same countries, as well as Russia, without waiting for the lifting of international sanctions against Afghanistan, provide humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, establish mutually beneficial trade and even invest in some projects. They use such common regional platforms as meetings of foreign ministers of Afghanistan’s neighboring countries, the SCO-Afghanistan contact group, the Moscow format, etc. The Afghan government has submitted an application for the participation of the country’s top leadership in the next BRICS summit, which will be held in Kazan on October 22-24, 2024. China was the first to accredit an ambassador of the Taliban government in Beijing. Several hundred Chinese entrepreneurs arrived in Kabul immediately after the withdrawal of US troops in August 2021. They soon launched dozens of factories producing clothing, textiles and footwear in the “Chinatown” of the Afghan capital. One of China’s first major investment projects was a 25-year contract signed in December 2023 to drill wells and build oil refineries in the Amu Darya River basin. Until these refineries are completed, the oil produced will be sent to Turkmenistan for processing. In the meantime, Afghanistan imports $3.5 billion worth of oil a year from Russia, the UAE, and Uzbekistan.

Afghan authorities have also announced plans for Chinese companies to invest half a billion dollars in solar energy in the country. A 300 km highway is being built to connect Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province with China. The two countries share a 76 km border, and the new road will significantly increase trade, which currently stands at $1.5 billion a year. Afghanistan could also be integrated into the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which leads to the port of Gwadar, China’s gateway to the Arabian Sea. Beijing is working with Kabul on a $10 billion investment project to mine lithium. The country’s reserves of this strategic raw material are estimated at $1 trillion. The Chinese promise to create 120,000 direct and one million indirect jobs during the project. Great importance is attached in Kabul to the commissioning of the transnational gas pipeline Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI), in which Russia’s participation is not excluded.

The Taliban are trying to reduce risks for foreign investors, create favorable conditions for them and ensure security. In October 2021, the Afghan authorities relocated ethnic Uyghurs from the area located near the border with China and severed relations with the terrorist organization of Chinese Uyghurs – the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (banned in Russia), whose militants advocate the separation of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region from China. In addition to China, India, Iran, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and other countries are claiming the role of investors in various projects in Afghanistan. Russia is also confidently occupying its niche in this country. If in 2022, Russia’s trade turnover with Afghanistan was about $170 million, now it has crossed the $1 billion mark. Afghan delegations participate in the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, and representatives of the business circles of the two countries meet on a regular basis.

Obviously the time has come to exclude DT from the list of terrorist organizations in Russia. As you know, in December 2023, our CSTO partner Kazakhstan already did this. Formally, DT is not included in the lists of terrorist organizations of the UN, the USA, and Great Britain. So far, only Russia, Canada, Turkey, and Tajikistan recognize DT as a terrorist organization. What are the arguments in favor of excluding DT from the list of terrorists? The Taliban, who came to power in 2021, have nothing in common with Al-Qaeda; moreover, they are fighting the Islamic State (banned in the Russian Federation) and other terrorist groups on their territory. DT has no plans to expand its ideology or carry out external aggression abroad; the Taliban’s goal is only to retain power in Afghanistan (an exception may be the border regions of Pakistan, where Pashtun tribes live). The Taliban have never fought with the USSR or the Russian Federation; the organization has not operated in Russia or the countries of Central Asia. By 2024, the Taliban government managed to disarm illegal armed groups in the country and limit the production and export of opiates.

At the same time Russia, China and other countries do not support the religious and ethnic radicalism bordering on extremism of the Taliban and advocate the formation of an inclusive government in Kabul with the participation of representatives of the main ethnic and religious minorities (Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras, etc.), as well as the observance of human rights and freedoms, primarily women. The violent imposition of Sharia law, the “Pashtunization” of the country violates the rights of millions of Afghans and creates the preconditions for new armed conflicts.

Nevertheless, the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Justice reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin that the Taliban movement in power in Afghanistan can be excluded from the list of banned organizations. Allegedly, this position has been agreed upon with other Russian agencies. On July 4, 2024, following the results of the next SCO summit, the President of Russia stated that the Taliban movement controls power in Afghanistan and is therefore interested in stability in this country, being our allies in the fight against terrorism.

Apparently the issue of excluding DT from the list of terrorist organizations in Russia may be resolved positively in the very near future. This will allow state and private companies and organizations of the Russian Federation to more actively engage in cooperation with Afghanistan. The integration of Kabul into trade and economic cooperation with other countries could not only prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in Afghanistan, but also significantly increase the level of regional security.