Sergey Saenko, international observer

The current year is marked by the 30^th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and the countries of Central Asia (CA) – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. On the occasion of the anniversary, a rich program of events is being implemented. Among them are the days of culture, exhibitions, theatrical tours, concerts, film screenings, round tables and scientific and practical conferences and even summits.

The latest summit called “Russia – Central Asia” was held in Astana last month. Just at it, the countries of the region confirmed their readiness to develop relations with Moscow, but in return they demanded greater respect for themselves. This, in particular, was stated in Astana by Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, who, as usual, is prone to directness.

However, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted, the Russia-Central Asia format does not replace the work of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). These structures operate in parallel and complement each other, thus contributing to the cooperation of the republics of the former Soviet Union.

It is no secret that recently Russia and the countries of Central Asia (CA) are undergoing another test of the strength of relations. And the summit in Astana showed that this is indeed the case. Moreover, this was expressed not only in the remark of the President of Tajikistan regarding greater respect from Moscow. At the summit, there was a concrete businesslike exchange of views on the most topical issues of Russia’s cooperation with the countries of the region.

For example, the most interesting discussions were on the creation of new trans-Eurasian corridors and the restoration of a regional unified energy system. After the European direction was closed for Russia, Moscow turned to Central Asia. In part, this appeal was forced. But on the other hand, this is a natural transfer of activity to the Central Asian direction, since sooner or later it had to happen, albeit under different conditions, not necessarily because of the Ukrainian crisis. In this case, the Russian special military operation (SVO) in Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions of the West, the isolation of Russia from Europe is more of a particularity and a pretext.

Let one emphasize that the objective need for reformatting all geopolitical and geo-economic ties and configurations has long been ripe in the world, which is what we are seeing today. Moreover, Russia’s turn to the east does not consist only in the sale of hydrocarbons to China and India. External relations must be differentiated, and besides the East, there is also the South, to which the Central Asian region can be attributed.

Indeed, Central Asia is exactly the direction in which Russia’s potential has not been fully realized and there is room for cooperation. Therefore, it is not at all surprising that these aspects were discussed by the heads of state at a recent summit in the capital of Kazakhstan. Thus, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that over the past five years, trade with the Central Asian states has doubled to $37.1 billion, and mutual trade in the first half of this year increased by another 16%. We add that the total volume of accumulated Russian investments in the economies of the countries of the region is now about $50 billion.

Speaking at the summit, Vladimir Putin also suggested that the Central Asian countries join Russian import substitution initiatives. To implement these plans, according to the Russian leader, it is necessary to stimulate the development of transport corridors throughout Greater Eurasia. “Therefore, the key task is the arrangement of the trans-Eurasian logistics corridors East-West, North-South passing through the territory of the CIS states. I think that this is of interest not only for Russia, but also for all states, our neighbors,” Putin said.

By the way, President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedov and his Uzbek counterpart Shavkat Mirziyoyev share Vladimir Putin’s point of view on the need to build infrastructure cross-border communications in the directions of Russia – Central Asia and further to the South. This is relevant today both for Moscow and for the countries of the region themselves. After all, it is no secret that until now most of the external relations of the Central Asian states were carried out along the previous Russian routes.

Thus, trans-Caspian corridors are being created today, but they are capable of mastering only small volumes of all these connections, and this mainly applies only to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. As for Uzbekistan, this country has only recently begun to show interest in trans-Caspian projects.

At the same time, the opportunities in the Iranian direction, to the ports of Chabahar and Bandar Abbas, remain insufficiently realized. As before, Afghanistan remains a gray area, where an uncertain security situation persists, which noticeably slows down the implementation of projects in the Iranian direction. In this regard, Russia and the Central Asian countries are interested in establishing stability in Afghanistan as soon as possible, which would allow them to move with all their projects to the South, towards India and Pakistan.

According to Central Asian experts, regional multimodal projects cannot be implemented independently by any of the Central Asian countries, since this requires large investments, which they do not have. Experts also believe that some of these projects, in the context of Russia’s reorientation to the east, solve the problem of diversifying the economy and should be of interest to Moscow. For example, the history of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project, which has been talked about for many years, is a clear example of how important it is to find a compromise. Recall that earlier the parties could not come to a common opinion on the gauge and the route of the railway track. To maintain balance in Central Asia, Russia’s participation in this project will definitely not be superfluous, local experts are sure.

If one talks about the economy as a whole, here cooperation in the Central Asia-Russia format is carried out mainly at bilateral levels, since in principle there are no unifying economic projects in the region. In the manufacturing sector, Moscow participates in similar projects in each country separately, and it seems that this situation will remain so in the future. At least it is possible in the near future.

And communication, which is now insufficient and what the Russian side is interested in, is just the very vector of cooperation that could consolidate the region and unite it with Russia. Then the six-party format Central Asia – Russia, which the Turkmen leader Berdimuhamedov proposes to optimize, will have ultimate goals. Moreover, the goals are understandable and useful for each participant in this format.

Here it is just appropriate to emphasize that the once geopolitical periphery and geographical province, which Central Asia was quite recently, is becoming, if not a center, but a serious independent subject of influence on world processes. It is interesting to note that the region did not pull China into its orbit as expected. The Central Asian countries withstood the courtship of the West, which was also surprising. Today, which was not observed before, they are trying to build parity relations with Russia, for which both sides, unfortunately, are not yet fully ready conceptually.

At the same time, it is quite obvious that the time of mutual reproaches and claims has passed. It’s time for concrete action. And Central Asia in this regard, unexpectedly for many, began to outstrip not only barely living Europe, but also powerful America. In this regard, Russia must not miss the moment – otherwise it will be too late …