Sergey Saenko, international observer

In March of this year, for the first time in history, Russia entered the top five largest trading partners of India, follows from the data of the Indian Ministry of Trade and Industry. Thus, the trade turnover between Moscow and New Delhi for the incomplete 2022-2023 financial year reached $39.8 billion compared to $13.1 billion a year earlier. True, at the same time, exports from India to Russia amounted to only $2.5 billion, and imports from Russia – $37.3 billion. Thus, Russia ranked fifth among India’s largest trading partners, behind only the United States, China, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Note that in the 2021-2022 financial year, Moscow was only on the 25th line of New Delhi’s trading partners.

It is no secret that such a breakthrough in the trade turnover between the two countries was achieved mainly due to a significant increase in Russia’s energy exports to India, primarily oil. Suffice it to say that in January Indian refineries set a record for Russian oil imports. In physical terms, imports increased by 1.4 million barrels per day. In comparison with the data of December last year, the volume of Russian oil supplies to India increased by 9.2%. According to the results of January, Russia became the largest supplier of oil for Indian companies, displacing Iraq and Saudi Arabia in this market. As a result, the share of Russian crude oil in the Indian market rose from 27% to 30% in comparison with December.

Moreover, as Bloomberg notes with reference to data from the country’s Ministry of Commerce, in January India bought Russian oil at a price of $79.80 per barrel. According to the US agency S&P Global Insights, since January 18, the price of Russian oil with delivery to India was $64.31 per barrel. Recall that from December 5, 2022, the price ceiling for Russian oil ($60 per barrel) came into force, and from February 5 this year, for oil products. Western countries expected that as a result of this step, Russia’s oil revenues would be significantly reduced, and for this reason the Russian economy would experience difficulties. But they were wrong in their forecasts – our economy survived.

It should be noted that on March 12, Bloomberg, citing unnamed sources, reported that India had decided to support oil price restrictions, and Western countries were allegedly satisfied with New Delhi’s position on this issue. At the same time, there were concerns in the West that oil purchase and sale deals concluded between Russia and India in national currencies were undermining the dollar’s longstanding dominance. However, already on March 14, Reuters, citing interlocutors in the Indian Ministry of Oil, wrote that the country did not support restrictions on Russian oil prices and should not do so, because. did not join the anti-Russian sanctions. Indeed, New Delhi has never publicly stated that it will support sanctions and an oil price ceiling. Apparently, Bloomberg hastened to announce that India decided to support oil price restrictions, since this is clearly not in the interests of the Indian side. In addition, the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, said that Russia, when interacting with India on oil supplies, will focus not on media reports, but on the law and existing contacts with counterparties.

In turn, we note that India ranks first in the world in terms of growth in energy demand. The Indian government expects that in the next five years this rate will be 7.5% per year. In addition, plans to modernize Indian power grids with an investment of $106 billion by 2030 could open up a new sales area for Russian companies. For this reason, domestic companies can play a significant role not only in the supply of oil and oil products, but also in equipment for Indian refineries, or even directly participate in the capital of Indian energy companies, benefiting from the future growth of this sector.

Another potential area of cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi is the participation of Russian companies in the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline project. In mid-January 2023, Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov stated that he did not exclude the possibility of Russia joining the project. In addition, Rosatom is building four blocks of the Kudankulam nuclear power plant in India and is discussing the construction of six more nuclear power units not within the framework of this project. According to Roscongress experts, the construction of new units will lead to an increase in nuclear fuel exports.

Let’s not forget that Russia is still Russia’s main supplier of weapons to India, although in fairness it must be admitted that its imports have been gradually decreasing in recent years. Thus, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), over the past five years, India’s purchases of Russian weapons have decreased by 19%. However, given the constant tension between New Delhi and Beijing and Islamabad, one should hardly expect a further drop in Russian arms exports to India.

Analysts believe that New Delhi’s dependence on Moscow for arms supplies is one of the factors behind India’s neutral position regarding Russia’s special military operation (SVO) in Ukraine, despite pressure from countries such as the United States, Japan and Australia – its partners in association QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue). Yes, India supported calls for a ceasefire and a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis, but abstained in the UN vote on a resolution condemning Russia for its actions in Ukraine. And this fact undoubtedly does credit to the leadership of India, which still remains true to the basic principles of the Non-Aligned Movement, of which New Delhi was one of the founders.

Cooperation in many areas is complemented by close Russian-Indian ties in the field of science and culture, which in turn are supported by significant political commitments. Suffice it to recall that in 2010 Moscow and New Delhi announced a “special and privileged strategic partnership” between the two countries. There are no significant differences in relations between Russia and India, and the leaders of the two countries – Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi – meet on a regular basis. To this we can add that both countries are actively cooperating in the international arena: be it the UN, BRICS (Brazil, India, China, Russia, South Africa) or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

So this year, when India presides over the G20 (G20), Russian President Vladimir Putin, as reported by The Independent, may take part in the G20 summit, which will be held in New Delhi in September. The Kremlin, according to Dmitry Peskov, also did not rule out the possibility of a visit by the Russian leader to the G20 summit in India.

It is common knowledge that Washington is trying with all its might to drive a wedge between the emerging noticeable rapprochement between Russia and China of late. And for this, the United States is trying to actively use India, using its long-standing friction with Beijing. Thus, Washington threatens New Delhi with sanctions for the purchase of Russian weapons, in particular the S-400 air defense system, and is trying to draw India deeper into cooperation within the framework of QUAD.

It is unlikely that the Americans will be able to destroy the friendship between Moscow and New Delhi that has been tested for many decades. Here it is appropriate to recall the words of the Indian leader, which he said back at the BRICS summit in 2014: “If you ask anyone in India who is the greatest friend of our country, every person, every child knows that this is Russia.”