Vladimir Tavridi, international observer

Perhaps those who claim that the Middle State is China are wrong. For our segment of the Internet, such a center of attention in the last at least six months has been Kazakhstan. Judging by the number of publications and analytical materials, Astana has become the center of interests and priorities of our analysts and media representatives.

On National Unity Day, V. Putin discussed the trips of Grand Duke Alexander Nevsky to the Golden Horde. Maybe because in a week he had a trip to the White Horde – the residence of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan. This time the roles were reversed – the Russian President brought good news. In the marble Akorda Palace (White Headquarters), the Russian President was given the honors due to the head of state arriving on an official visit.

President Tokayev, despite the late hour, personally met the guest at the plane’s steps. Journalists covering this trip noted the beautiful performance of the Russian anthem by the Presidential Orchestra of Kazakhstan, as well as the wonderful video filmed at the airport.

The formal pretext for the visit was participation in the plenary meeting of the XIX Forum of Interregional Cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan, which was held in the city of Kostanay, could have been carried out without leaving home, as they say, but, apparently, some issues needed face-to-face discussion eye. Of the entire range of pressing problems – the trade routes of the New Silk Road passing through Kazakhstan, the acute shortage of water in the republic, Astana’s plans to supply rare earth metals and uranium to Western countries, cooperation on sanctions issues and a number of others – only energy and agriculture were reflected in the open materials of the visit economy and some humanitarian aspects.

In particular, a decision was announced to create a number of educational institutions in the south of Kazakhstan with teaching in Russian. And this is no small achievement, since today there are no Russian schools where education follows the Russian curriculum in Kazakhstan. On the eve of the visit, the Russian President noted that “Kazakh youth are showing interest in learning the Russian language and receiving Russian education.” Putin called the Russian language “our common heritage and competitive advantage,” recalling that branches of Moscow State University are already operating in Kazakhstan. Lomonosov and other Russian universities, where more than 60 thousand students study.

Tokayev continued this topic in his interview. He called, in particular, the Russian language “a serious consolidating factor in maintaining friendly relations between our states, an effective tool for the development of regional cooperation, cooperation and trust.” It is possible that such a formulation of the issue could somehow influence the activities of the so-called “language patrols,” which have been creating a negative background for the entire Russian-speaking population of the republic for a long time.

Much attention was paid to issues of food supply and agricultural development. The reminder from our president that Russia and Kazakhstan own 10% of all arable land in the world sounded very significant in the city, which at one time was called Tselinograd and was the capital of the development of virgin lands. And today Kazakhstan is an importer of grain.

Much attention at the negotiations was paid to the issues of energy independence of Kazakhstan. Thus, we promised assistance in the construction of three thermal power plants. Experts have long noted that Kazakhstan is on the verge of a real energy collapse, and without updating equipment, networks and increasing capacity through the development of nuclear energy and traditional power plants, the country may face serious problems.

An indicator of the systemic crisis in this area was the enormous accidents last winter at thermal power plants in Ekibastuz, Rudny, Temirtau, as well as in other cities of the country. According to the Ministry of Energy, the total wear and tear of thermal power plants amounted to 66%, and in key thermal power plants in the west, center and south of the republic it exceeded 80%. The problem is that as a result of privatization, they fell into the hands of nine private monopoly companies that do not invest money in modernizing production.

It was Russia that saved Kazakhstan from an energy disaster in the winter, when several thermal power plants failed at once. About 70 traditional Soviet power plants of all types are degrading before our eyes, but, nevertheless, continue to generate six times more energy than the more than 150 “green power plants” built by Western investors in the form of wind turbines and solar panels.

In this regard, the discussion surrounding the construction of a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan by Russian specialists, who control 80% of the world market in this area, is of particular interest. In response to this proposal during the negotiations, the Kazakh leader said that such a project would be implemented “if the people of the country say “yes” in a referendum.” Here we must keep in mind that projects for the construction of nuclear power plants by China or France are being considered in Kazakhstan.

Some observers believe that Putin’s rather hasty visit to the neighboring capital was partly dictated by the results of the French President’s trip to Kazakhstan. Macron, true to his custom of being a mediator in various situations, acted as a spokesman for American intentions, declared in September this year in New York during the C5+1 summit, which was chaired by the American president. In addition, Macron was probably testing the waters regarding the supply of uranium, which France has been in dire need of late, and lobbied for the interests of its nuclear workers interested in building a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan.

There is no doubt that Macron persuaded the President of Kazakhstan to reorient himself geopolitically towards the EU and the West in general and refuse to build up further cooperation with Russia. According to Western leaders, the conflict in Ukraine has disrupted long-established relations in the region, and this opens up new opportunities for them to increase their influence. At the same time, Kazakhstan is considered by Western political strategists as a “weak link” in the Central Asian region.

When taking office, President Tokayev proclaimed “multi-vector” as the basis of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy. Many states in our turbulent times, for obvious reasons, follow this path, the difficulty of which lies in maintaining the correct balance between these vectors.

For example, Russia was concerned by information that Astana had put up for auction 117 Soviet-made combat aircraft: Su-24, MiG-27, MiG-29 and MiG-31, which could ultimately end up in Ukraine. However, they write that the cars are in unusable condition. In fact, this could all be a cover. In the end, it will be quite possible to assemble one combat-ready vehicle from two or three vehicles. I remember how last year the media kept flashing reports about Kazakhstan’s attempts to sell Soviet-made weapons and ammunition through third countries, as well as to supply Kazakh oil to Ukraine through the terminal in the Novorossiysk port.

If this is true, then the vectors of Kazakhstan’s policy clearly need to be adjusted. It is possible that the main purpose of our president’s visit was to touch up the “crown” of the eastern ruler and remind him of the interests of two powerful neighbors – Russia and China.