Russia and the new Syrian authorities are conducting a political dialogue defining the contours of future relations

On February 12, Russian President Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with the head of the transitional period of the Syrian Arab Republic Ahmed al-Shara`a, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani. According to official information from the Kremlin the head of state wished his interlocutor success in solving the tasks facing the new leadership of the country for the benefit of the Syrian people, with whom Russia has historically had relations of friendship and mutually beneficial cooperation.

During the thorough exchange of opinions that took place “the Russian side emphasized its principled position in support of the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Syrian state”. In this regard “the importance of implementing a set of measures for the sustainable normalization of the situation in the country, intensifying the inter-Syrian dialogue with the participation of leading political forces and ethno-confessional groups of the population” was noted. The Russian side as before is ready to help improve the socio-economic situation in the Arab country, including providing humanitarian aid to its residents.

A number of actual issues of practical cooperation in trade, economic, educational and other areas were touched upon including taking into account the talks in Damascus at the end of January between Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Mikhail Bogdanov and Special Representative of the President of Russia for Syria Alexander Lavrentyev. Their arrival in Damascus was the first official visit of Russian diplomats to Syria since the fall of the government of President Bashar al-Assad in early December.

Progress has not yet been achieved on the issue of preserving Russian facilities in Tartus and Khmeimim but the discussion will continue. Let one recall that the naval base in Tartus is the only port on the Mediterranean used by the Russian Navy while the Khmeimim airbase plays an important role in Moscow’s African logistics. “Russia is ready to help Syria restore its economy”, said Vitaly Naumkin, scientific director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and vice president of the Russian International Affairs Council. “We will be able to find a compromise”. The new authorities will benefit from maintaining ties with Moscow including through possible military supplies.

According to some observers in addition to the future Russian military presence in Syria possible Russian investments were also discussed at the meeting in Damascus. It is possible that the fate of Bashar al-Assad and officers loyal to him with the priorities of the parties differing. While the Russian side recalls its experience in restoring post-conflict regions with the utmost respect for the sovereignty of national states Damascus focuses on the extradition of persons of interest to the new leadership as well as presumably assets taken out of the country.

Despite active diplomacy and generous advances (they even managed to hold a conference in Paris with the participation of officials) Syria still lacks funds for restoration having inherited $8 billion in debt to Russia from the former government. This was lamented in an interview with the Financial Times published on January 22 by Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Sheibani, who according to some sources was officially invited to visit Moscow.

It is unlikely to be a coincidence that on February 14 the state news agency SANA reported the delivery of cash in Syrian pounds to the Damascus airport. The regulator did not specify the volumes of the funds delivered but noted that the circulating data on their quantity is inaccurate. According to unconfirmed information from some social media users Moscow promised to deliver tons of Syrian currency printed at Goznak enterprises to Damascus back in 2012 after the corresponding order was rejected in Austria.

Despite ongoing excesses including kidnappings, attacks and extrajudicial killings by militants of radical groups the de facto authorities of Syria in every possible way demonstrate moderation and a willingness to distance themselves from the radicals with whom the same al-Shara`a dealt during his stay in Idlib. How this corresponds to the real state of affairs is a separate question. Thus at the end of January, after almost six years of pressure from local structures and international organizations, one of the most odious local terrorist groups, the so-called “Guardians of Religion” (“Khuras ad-Din”), banned in Russia, the Syrian branch of the terrorist organization “Al-Qaeda,” banned in Russia, announced its self-dissolution.

According to one of the local researchers, Dr. Azzam al-Kassir the current situation has changed: the Guardians no longer serve any purpose, and their existence has rather become a burden for the current administration, which is busy solving such important tasks as improving communication and coordination with external parties and ensuring its ability to control the situation in the country after Assad’s departure. Previously, the presence of the Guardians indirectly helped the terrorist group HTS, banned in Russia, by creating for the outside world the image of a less radical organization than others, acting as a guarantor against the spread of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, banned in Russia. However, today, in the changed conditions, according to al-Kassir “this need has disappeared”.

This does not necessarily mean the end of the group’s existence in any form, nor the flow of its adherents into the ranks of HTS supporters, pro-Turkish proxies from the “Syrian National Army” and other similar organizations, where they can create many problems. Thus, according to information from military police officers located in the area of ​​the Tartus naval base, to whom military correspondent Oleg Blokhin refers, “HTS terrorists are constantly organizing provocations against Russian servicemen and are creating obstacles to the normal evacuation of our equipment and personnel from the Tartus and Khmeimim bases.

For a week now, the HTS has been banning the movement of Russian Armed Forces columns from Khmeimim to Tartus and back. In addition, in the area of ​​the Tartus naval base there have been provocations by HTS militants with attempts by armed groups to approach the location of the Russian base both from land and from the sea. In the immediate vicinity of our ships, the militants’ boats filled with their personnel are cruising, demonstratively directing ZUShkas [ZU-23 anti-aircraft mounts of Soviet manufacture that the militants have – Author’s note] towards the Russian ships. Finally one night an attempt was made by HTS militants to penetrate one of our ships. As one can see the new authorities are not allowing the bases “to operate normally”.

The decision to review relations with Russia will be made by the Syrian people the head of the transitional Syrian diplomacy A. Hassan al-Shibani somewhat vaguely states: “If we get the green light from our people, we will take action”. It can be assumed that the opinion of the “people” will be found out in another way during the proposed conference to determine the future of the country and the new Constitution to which however neither representatives of the Kurdish administration of the Euphrates region nor supporters of the former Assad regime will appear.

According to the organizers this will be the “first real gathering of Syrians in 75 years” dedicated to social, political, economic and governance issues, which will lay the foundations for a sustainable future based on national consensus, justice, reform and inclusiveness. The conference is expected to produce non-binding recommendations for the transitional president Ahmed al-Shara`a on the content of the country’s new constitution.

“Moscow is demonstrating political flexibility by recognizing the new government in Damascus, in which people from radical Islamist structures considered terrorist retain an influential role” notes REX agency political observer and orientalist Stanislav Tarasov. At the same time numerous internal and external circumstances caused by the armed conflict that has dragged on for more than 10 years certainly do not promise an easy way for the emerging Russian-Syrian dialogue.

Andrey Areshev, International observer

 

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