At the SCO summit in China, Yerevan and Baku’s applications for membership in the Organization were not satisfied

In the first days of September, the attention of the world media was focused on the People’s Republic of China, where events are taking place that are very important for the current world politics, characterized by increased conflict, turbulence and uncertainty. The series of these events was opened by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in an expanded format, which was attended by the leaders of almost all the SCO partner states, who did not miss the opportunity to synchronize watches once again.

The status quo in the Caucasus, which has radically changed in the last few years, including the recent agreements between Baku and Yerevan in the White House under the supervision of Donald Trump to a certain extent, have actualized the topic of American-Chinese rivalry in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Both Armenia and especially Azerbaijan have made considerable efforts in recent months to strengthen ties with China, which is promoting ambitious communication projects in Central Asia and the Caucasus.

Both Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and President Ilham Aliyev held separate meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and chatted casually with each other, accompanied by their wives, like good old friends. Turkish President Recep Erdogan was also present, expressing genuine interest in the implementation of the Zangezur Corridor project and making significant efforts in this direction. Thus, at the end of August, construction of a railway line from Kars to the border of the Nakhichevan Autonomous Region was launched, designed, along with the still missing Meghri section in the Syunik region of Armenia, to close the improvised “transport ring”, clearly linked to China’s Belt and Road initiative.

Tianjin was not without diplomatic blunders albeit easily predictable. Thus, if we are to believe some leaks, the Indian delegation headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi blocked Azerbaijan’s accession to the SCO as a full member. In turn, Pakistan “did not let” Armenia into the SCO in the same way. At the same time, the foreign ministers of Armenia and Pakistan exchanged protocols on the establishment of diplomatic relations, which, of course, would not have happened without the consent of official Baku, a long-standing military and political ally of Islamabad. After a pause, Baku decided to continue the intrigue, spreading a rumor with reference to some diplomatic sources that the blocking of Azerbaijan’s membership in the SCO was the result of efforts not only by India, but also by Russia, which allegedly actively participated in this process. According to the APA agency, the issue was discussed during consultations with New Delhi, after which the parties reached an agreement. Russia brought India to the forefront while remaining in the shadows, Baku did not fail to note, believing that Moscow played a “key role” in preventing Azerbaijan from joining the SCO. There was also talk about how Russia was allegedly “setting up” China with its actions, and not a word about the close and trusting Azerbaijani-Pakistani ties, expressed, among other things, in Ilham Aliyev’s public congratulations on Islamabad’s victory in the recent conflict with New Delhi on the sidelines of the forum in Beijing.

Moscow chose not to publicly comment on the provocative, to put it mildly, leak to the Azerbaijani media, while the Indian Foreign Ministry noted that the issue of two Caucasian states joining the SCO could not be considered due to a lack of time. However, this topic remains under consideration, the official representative of the foreign policy department of the South Asian country, Randhir Jaiswal, assured journalists. Let us recall that in June, India refused to support the final statement following the meeting of the defense ministers of the SCO member states due to the lack of condemnation of the high-profile terrorist attack in Phalgam in the document. It is known that further expansion of the organization is fraught with the introduction of additional disagreements and contradictions into its work. In addition, given the close ties between the ruling elites of Baku and Yerevan with the United States and the European Union, some observers are rightly concerned about the emergence of potential “Trojan horses” in the SCO acting in the interests of the West.

On the other hand, for both Baku and Yerevan, an accentuated interest in the SCO remains one of the instruments of trade with Washington and Brussels in the difficult process of constantly searching for optimal foreign policy balances. For example, Armenia cannot build friendship “against someone,” and that is why the course of some parties and groups on anti-Russian rhetoric contradicts the interests of the country in the context of the formation of a multipolar world, believes the chairman of the party “In the Name of Social Justice” Arman Ghukasyan. Baku experts draw attention to the growing importance of the organization in modern global geopolitical and geo-economic processes. Baku’s noticeably strengthened ties with China and the Central Asian states also suggest an increase in interest in the organization as a whole.

After the signing of the Washington Declaration on August 8, it was important for both Aliyev and Pashinyan to confirm their relevance at key “non-Western” international forums, and at the same time to find out Beijing’s true attitude to the supposed “Trump road” in the Syunik mountains, the details of the possible functioning of which are still lost in the fog. Recently, the US has been consistently increasing pressure on Beijing’s trade and transit partners in Central Asia and the Caucasus, including by imposing adventurous business schemes behind the screen of equally dubious “peacekeeping” services.

There is no doubt that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization remains an important dialogue platform for discussing a wide range of issues, including the outline of the “global governance system” voiced by Chinese President Xi Jinping and supported by Russian President Vladimir Putin. At the same time, it is important for the organization, which claims a dominant role in matters of ensuring security in the vast expanses of Greater Eurasia not to get bogged down in the quagmire of regional conflicts and interstate contradictions of its participants.

Andrey Areshev, International observer

 

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