The outbreak of violence in Syria could not have happenedwithout the intervention of external forces

 A new large-scale offensive by militants of radical Islamist groups and armed opposition units in the provinces of Aleppo, Idlib and Hama caught government troops and the foreign Shiite formations supporting them by surprise. The attackers’ biggest success was the capture of the strategically important cities of Aleppo and Hama, and the establishment of control over Highway No. 5, which connects the northern and central regions of the country. The militants also managed to seize a significant amount of armored vehicles and heavy weapons.

Despite the fact that Ankara tries to distance itself from the events that have taken place in Syria since November 27, 2024, in its official statements, it would be nonsense to deny the role of Turkey and its armed forces in this offensive. It is well known that after the ceasefire agreement between the parties reached in March 2020 with the mediation of Turkey and the Russian Federation, the Turkish authorities not only controlled the enclave of anti-government forces in the provinces of Idlib and Aleppo, and somewhat earlier occupied the Kurdish administrative region of Afrin, but also created new regional and municipal authorities, police, special services in these areas, armed Islamist and opposition units, and engaged in their combat training. Simply put, the security forces of the Syrian territories controlled by Ankara and radical Islamist groups became its proxy forces in the confrontation with the government of Bashar al-Assad.

The significant expansion of the pro-Turkish enclave in Syria can be regarded as Ankara’s revenge for the retreat of Islamist units and the Syrian opposition in February-March 2020. Apparently, Erdogan and his entourage took advantage of the weakening of the most combat-ready formations of the pro-Assad forces in the form of the Lebanese Hezbollah, which suffered significant losses during the fighting in Lebanon and at the same time from Israeli Air Force strikes in Syria. After 13 years of civil war, the Syrian army has been significantly weakened and is not able to independently resist the advancing anti-government groups. It is not yet possible to count on the help of the motley Shiite army hastily assembled by Iran from among mercenaries – Afghans, Pakistanis, Iraqis, Yemenis. There are no reports yet on sending military contingents from Iran and Iraq to Syria to help Assad. The Russian Aerospace Forces, together with the Syrian Arab Republic’s aviation, are launching missile and bomb strikes against concentrations of attackers, but at the same time they are forced to take into account the dispersal of militants in cities and populated areas among the civilian population, as well as their proximity to retreating government troops.

It is difficult to say whether the radical and opposition groups will be able to capture the province of Homs and continue their offensive on Damascus. But such a scenario cannot be ruled out. Judging by the statements of the leaders of the jihadists from the group “Gayat Tahrir al-Sham” (banned in Russia), they intend to build on their success until they capture Damascus and establish their power. Allegedly, they are counting on the support of the Arab-Sunni majority of the country (up to 70% of the population), which is against Assad.

But another scenario is also possible. If government troops, with the help of Iranian proxy forces and the Russian Aerospace Forces, manage to stop those advancing in the province of Homs or on the approaches to Damascus, then a new freezing of the conflict and a return to negotiations in the Astana or Geneva format cannot be ruled out. Ankara believes that under the new conditions it will be much easier to put pressure on Damascus and force it to achieve peace on terms favorable to Turkey and the Syrian opposition. Erdogan continues to insist on the implementation of the agreements reached earlier in Astana and Geneva by representatives of Assad and the opposition on the adoption of a new constitution for the country and holding early parliamentary and presidential elections. Ankara is confident that any elections involving millions of refugees, displaced persons and Syrian citizens living in territories not controlled by Assad (a total of about 15 million people) will lead to a change in the ruling regime in Syria through democratic means.

Strengthening the positions of anti-government forces in Syria also meets the interests of Israel, which is wary of Damascus becoming a military stronghold for Tehran with all the negative consequences that entails. To some extent, the Israeli Air Force’s missile and bomb strikes on Hezbollah and Iran’s IRGC positions, warehouses and weapons transports that took place the day before contributed to the success of the Turkish proxy forces. But Tel Aviv also considers the seizure of power in Syria by radical Islamists, who may join forces with Hamas and Islamic Jihad (the latter is banned in the Russian Federation), to be no less dangerous. Today, the Netanyahu government benefits from the mutual weakening of all parties to the conflict in the SAR, both pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian. The outbreak of violence in Syria also meets the interests of Washington to some extent, which is not going to give up its support for the Kurdish militias and the Arab tribes of the Euphrates region. The replacement of the pro-Iranian Assad regime with radical Islamists also suits the US temporarily. After all, Washington supported the Muslim Brotherhood regime (banned in Russia) in Egypt not long ago. The US hopes that later they will be able to bring to power in Syria the leaders of the Arab-Sunni opposition, which will be supported not only by the country’s population, but also by most Arab countries. Taking advantage of the moment, the US Armed Forces struck areas where pro-Iranian groups are deployed on the border with Iraq, and Kurdish units, under the pretext of fighting the terrorists of the Islamic State (banned in Russia), drove government troops out of the provincial capital of Deir ez-Zor.

Thus, Erdogan and his entourage can be considered the main beneficiary of the new outbreak of violence in Syria, and the people of this long-suffering country have become the victims of these events and the generally aggravated crisis situation in the SAR. More than a million Syrians have already died or become disabled, 7-8 million people live in tent camps in neighboring countries as refugees, about 4 million are displaced, and more than 8 million citizens have ended up in territories not controlled by Damascus. Even those who remained under government control suffer from a shortage of food, medicine, basic necessities, housing, hospitals, schools, etc.

The restrictive sanctions of Western and other countries have left their negative imprint on their standard of living. If this is not a humanitarian catastrophe, then what can be considered a humanitarian catastrophe on our planet? Obviously, the way out of the current impasse in Syria could be the withdrawal of all foreign troops from its territory and the conduct of a peacekeeping or humanitarian operation under the auspices of the UN Security Council.

Stanislav Ivanov
Leading researcher at IMEMO RAS,
PhD  Historical sciences

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