The new Syrian government is still unable to solve the country’s problems and stabilize the domestic political situation

The latest news from Syria and comments from politicians and experts do not inspire optimism about the future of Syria. Will the new authorities in Damascus be able to unite the multinational and multi-confessional population and recreate the Syrian state, or is this country destined to the fate of Libya, Yemen or Somalia?

As is known the thirteen-year civil war in this country has claimed the lives of over 700 thousand Syrians, several million have become disabled, over 7 million live in tent camps as refugees in neighboring countries (Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan), and about 3 million are displaced persons. Of the 22.5 million pre-war populations today even taking into account the birth rate, about 15 million people remain in the country. Most cities and towns lie in ruins, infrastructure, industry; life support systems, health care and education have been destroyed. The plight of the population is aggravated by restrictive sanctions from the US and EU countries.

In these conditions, the coming to power in Damascus on December 8, 2024 of representatives of radical Islamist groups such as Ghayyat Tahrir al-Sham (banned in the Russian Federation) was perceived by the majority of the population of Syria and some states as a chance to stop the civil war and establish a peaceful life. However, in reality, everything turned out to be not so simple. The transitional government of Syria, headed by Ahmed al-Sharaa, is not yet able to resolve the new problems that have arisen in the country and create conditions for the revival of the Syrian state. These problems include the following.

The Islamists who came to power turned out to be far from uniform in their ideological and political views. While al-Sharaa himself and his inner circle are trying to give at least some legitimacy to the new regime and are trying to establish basic order in the country, dozens of other military and political groups refuse to disarm and act largely independently. It was these militants who carried out the massacre in the areas densely populated by Alawites and carried out an attack on the Russian military base in Khmeimim. The armed opposition units, consisting of former military personnel and the Turkish-backed Turkmen gangs also retain their combat capability.

The Kurdish militias, who, in alliance with the Arab tribes of Trans-Euphrates and with the support of a small US military contingent, control the entire northeast of the country, are not going to disarm either. The leaders of the autonomous region of Rojava, which emerged here in the fight against the terrorist groups of ISIS (banned in Russia), are expressing their readiness for dialogue with the new authorities, but on the condition that the rights and freedoms of the Kurds are preserved in the new constitution of the country.

Some of the settlements in the south of the country, where the Druze Arabs live compactly, have expressed a desire to join Israel, where approximately 150 thousand Druze live in much better conditions than their Syrian compatriots. Israel supports these separatist sentiments and has significantly expanded its zone of occupation of Syrian territory on the Golan Heights.

Thus the removal of Bashar al-Assad and the rise to power of Islamists has not yet brought the long-awaited peace to the Syrian land. The Syrian state, cobbled together on the ruins of the Ottoman Empire by France under a mandate from the League of Nations in the 1920s, was largely artificial, without taking into account the interests of local tribes and peoples, and has proven to be unviable.

The new authorities are not yet able to unite the nation and form an inclusive government. If earlier the clan of the Arab-Alawite minority and the nationalists of the Baath Party dominated in Damascus, now power has been usurped by people from the Arab-Sunni majority with extreme Islamist views. Some experts classify them as a pro-Turkish branch of the Muslim Brotherhood (banned in the Russian Federation).

The external relations of the new regime remain no less confusing. In place of Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah, which supported Assad, came Turkey and its local proxy forces, which include the Gayat Tahrir al-Sham group. Ankara is clearly not interested in taking into account the interests of the Alawite Arabs, Druze Arabs, Kurds, Assyrians, Armenians and other Syrian minorities in the future Syria. As in his own country Erdogan is imposing on Damascus a model of an Islamist state with a single nation, where minorities will face forced assimilation like the Turkish crypto-Armenians or the Kurds – “mountain Turks”. This provokes a new civil war in Syria with another foreign intervention, where Turkey will take Iran’s place.

Obviously, the above largely explains the statement by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio: “The transitional administration in Syria, given the challenges it faces, could face a full-scale civil war or lose power in the near future.” According to him the situation in the SAR remains unstable, and therefore the US does not intend to open its embassy there.

This statement largely disavows the meeting between Trump and al-Sharaa that took place the day before in Riyadh, at which the American president promised to lift the restrictive sanctions against Damascus. Rubio confirmed with his statement that this gesture of “goodwill” by Trump does not mean full recognition of the new Syrian government. Trump only wanted to satisfy the requests of the Gulf monarchs and Erdogan to give the “green light” to the restoration of Syria’s infrastructure and economy. As is known the day before Saudi Arabia and Qatar paid off Syria’s debt to the World Bank, which allows Damascus to once again receive preferential loans from this organization. The monarchs themselves are ready to finance specific projects in Syria, and Türkiye expresses its readiness to participate in the construction and reconstruction of housing and other facilities.

At the same time, Syria remains in a crisis situation and is effectively divided into several enclaves and zones of foreign influence. The north and northwest of the country are controlled by Turkey, the northeast is controlled by Kurdish militias with the Arab tribes of the Euphrates region with the support of the US Armed Forces, the Golan Heights and adjacent areas of the south of the country are controlled by Israel. The situation in the areas of compact residence of Alawite Arabs remains difficult.

The transitional government of Syria is not yet able to resolve the accumulated domestic political problems, achieve a consensus of interests of all Syrians in order to ensure the transition to a gradual restoration of the country, the return of refugees and displaced persons. The likelihood of a resumption of the civil war remains.

Stanislav Ivanov,
Leading researcher at IMEMO RAS,
Candidate of Historical Sciences

A source