Stanislav Ivanov, Leading Researcher, Center for International Security, IMEMO RAS, Candidate of Historical Sciences

At the next SCO summit in Samarkand on September 15-16, 2022, Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia became dialogue partners with the SCO, while Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE began the procedure for acquiring this status. The pivot of the SCO to the Middle East is another important step towards strengthening the influence and authority of the Organization in the international arena.

All the Arab states listed above are not only the leading producers and exporters of hydrocarbons to the world market, but they are rapidly developing modern economies and infrastructure, keeping pace with scientific and technological progress, and investing in profitable projects in their countries and around the world. Let us consider the features of these Arab countries in order to assess the possible benefits of the SCO from the development of cooperation with them.

Arab Republic of Egypt. It plays a very important role in Africa and the Middle East, is rightfully considered one of the leaders of the Arab world, the headquarters of the League of Arab States (LAS) is located in Cairo. The population of the country exceeds 105 million people.

It is one of the most developed countries on the African continent. Agriculture is traditionally developed in the country: corn, citrus fruits, cereals, sugar cane, various types of vegetables (potatoes, tomatoes, carrots) are grown. In the industry of Egypt, oil and natural gas production, petro chemistry, the food industry, the production of cotton fabrics and clothing, metallurgy (steel and aluminum production), some branches of engineering, and the electric power industry play an important role. Phosphorites, iron and manganese ores are mined. Significant budget revenues come from the tourism industry.

The volume of GDP in 2021 amounted to $404 billion; the GDP growth rate was 5.4% for the 1^st quarter of 2022. One of the most important infrastructure facilities of world importance is the Suez Canal, which connects Asia and Europe by the shortest route. Its capacity is up to 100 ships per day, which is about 12% of the world’s cargo transportation. It is planned to modernize the channel by 2023 and double its capacity. A number of new large-scale projects are being implemented, including the construction of the al-Dabaa nuclear power plant by Russia. Until 2028, Rosatom will build 4 power units and will supply nuclear fuel throughout the entire life cycle of nuclear power plants (60 years), as well as provide personnel training services and carry out maintenance and repairs for 10 years after the start-up of each unit.

Qatar. A relatively small country in terms of territory and population (3.3 million people) occupies one of the first places in the world in the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Currently, about two-thirds of Qatar’s long-term exports are to Asian buyers. But the country is striving to ensure that the distribution of supplies becomes more balanced and about half of the gas would go to Europe. In this regard, Qatar plans to build four new natural gas liquefaction units, which will increase LNG production for export by 2026 to 110 million tons from the current 77 million tons per year. This will allow the country to overtake Australia and become the second largest LNG producer after the US.

Qatar’s GDP in 2022 will be $172 billion with an annual growth of 5%. Qatar has introduced an advanced economic model that has solidified its status as a regional economic powerhouse. The state’s approach is to achieve a balance between the economy based on hydrocarbons and the real economy. Qatar ranks first in the Arab world for business support and second in the Middle East for economic freedom.

Qatar is a founding member of the Pan-Arab Free Trade Area (PAFTA). Developed infrastructure from transport to digital communications is noted. The country has one of the largest cargo marine fleets, operating in more than 160 destinations around the world. Qatar Airways operates the third largest fleet of cargo aircraft. The country’s transport infrastructure involves a major expansion of the overburdened Middle East port and logistics facilities.

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Along with Egypt, he is one of the leaders of the Arab world, the king of Saudi Arabia bears the title of “Keeper of the two Muslim shrines.” Riyadh heads the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Persian Gulf (GCC). The population is about 36 million people. GDP in 2022 is $1.0 trillion, up 12.2% in the 2nd quarter. On the territory of Saudi Arabia there are deposits of oil and natural gas, iron ores, gold, copper, zinc, silver, lead, pyrite, phosphorites, magnesite, marble, salt, limestone, etc. But still, the main wealth of the country is oil and gas. The proven reserves of KSA crude oil are estimated at 57 billion tons, which is approximately 16% of the world’s recoverable reserves of this energy carrier.

Saudi oil exports reached 7.5 million bpd in July 2022, the highest since April 2020. At the same time, oil supplies to China – the main destination – jumped to an average of 1.65 million b / d in July, while supplies to India exceeded 1 million b / d.

A feature of the KSA economy is the accelerated development of other, alternative industries and infrastructure. Significant financial resources are invested in agriculture, animal husbandry, green energy, information technology, housing construction, tourism, railways and highways, ports, airports, etc. The aim is to reduce the dependence of the country’s budget on oil exports.

Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE are also major oil exporters to the world market and follow Riyadh’s wake in politics and economics, although they retain some peculiarities in foreign policy. Together with the KSA and Qatar, they have gained positive experience in regional cooperation within the framework of the GCC (financial, customs, trade and economic, military, military-technical, other integration). Therefore, it is important for these countries to establish interaction within the SCO at the same time and, as it were, synchronously. In addition, most of the Persian Gulf countries already have experience of mutually beneficial cooperation on a bilateral basis with the SCO member states. As noted above, Riyadh supplies large volumes of oil to China and India, the UAE also sends 17.4 million tons to India and 12.2 million tons of oil to China. Millions of migrant workers from India work in the GW countries.

There are very serious reasons to believe that a number of other states from the 23 Arab League members may join the Arab countries listed above in the coming years. First of all, it can be Iraq, Sudan, the Sultanate of Oman, Jordan, Algeria, and Morocco. Thus, the number of SCO member countries will increase by several hundred million people, and the economic potential of the Organization will noticeably increase.

The Arab countries, in turn, have long shown interest in the SCO as an influential independent international organization, seeing it as an alternative to Western alliances. Countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar fear that in the event of political differences with the United States, their assets in the West may be frozen, and the purchased expensive equipment and weapons will be left without spare parts and ammunition. In the context of the aggravation of Russia’s relations with the collective West due to the events in Ukraine, the pressure of Washington and Brussels on the Arab countries is intensifying. The United States and its Western allies demand that the oil and gas exporting countries of the Persian Gulf significantly increase their production in order to compensate for the refusal of the EU countries from Russian hydrocarbons, to join the restrictive sanctions against the Russian Federation.

In this situation, the desire of the leading Arab countries to integrate with the SCO looks like a completely natural result. This is in the interests of the countries of the Middle East, the spirit of the times and the tendency to build a multipolar world without the dictates and hegemony of any one world power or alliance.

Since the times of the USSR, Russia has maintained its traditionally friendly relations with the entire Arab world, is developing mutually beneficial bilateral scientific, technical, trade and economic relations with most Arab countries, including in the military and military-technical spheres, space exploration, construction of nuclear power plants and is interested in that the Arab countries interact more closely with the SCO. It seems that Russia’s partners in the SCO, represented by China, India, and other countries, also have a positive experience of cooperation with the Arab East and will not mind attracting as many Arab countries as possible to cooperation and integration within the Organization.