Sergey Saenko, international observer

In early June, in Beijing, the transport ministers of China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan signed an agreement on the construction of a railway that will connect the three countries. At the same time, the leaders of the three countries sent their video messages to the participants of the signing ceremony.

Chairman of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping said that China is eager to start work as soon as possible. In turn, President of the Kyrgyz Republic (KR) Sadyr Japarov called the implementation of the project a historic task. His Uzbek counterpart Shavkat Mirziyoyev promised that the economic effect will be felt by all countries participating in this project.

It should be noted that the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will connect the East and the West in a shorter and more economically advantageous way. Suffice it to say that the highway will significantly shorten the route from China to Europe, as well as the countries of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, reduce transportation costs and reduce the delivery time of goods by about 7-8 days, which will significantly change the structure of the Eurasian transport network. Largely for these reasons, the construction of this highway has aroused great interest among all participants in the project. Currently problems have arisen with the transit of goods to the countries of the European Union through Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.

Speaking about the project itself, the length of the railway will be 454 km, of which 165 km is the Chinese section, about 270 km will pass through the territory of Kyrgyzstan, and the remaining kilometers are in Uzbekistan. The route of the highway will run from the Chinese city of Kashgar (the end point of the railway in southern Xinjiang) through the border Torugart, the Arpa Valley (Fergana Range) and further through Makmal and Jalal-Abad to the Republic of Uzbekistan (RU). It is assumed that about 15 million tons of cargo and about 300 thousand passengers will be transported along this highway annually. It is planned to equip 18 stations, 81 bridges and 41 tunnels along the entire length of the road. It is expected that the construction of the highway will begin in October of this year and will be completed in six years. According to current estimates $4.7 billion is planned to be spent on the implementation of the Kyrgyz section of the project: half of the amount will be provided by Beijing, a quarter will be allocated by Bishkek and Tashkent. China will finance its section of the route from its own budget.

In the future, the highway can be extended in the western direction and then it will become part of the so-called Middle Corridor – a route from China to Europe through Central Asia (CA) and Transcaucasia bypassing Russia. In this regard, the question immediately arises: what is the attitude of the Russian Federation towards this project, through whose territory the Trans-Siberian Transport Corridor and the Russia-Kazakhstan-China highway, which compete with the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway line, run? As it has now become known, the parties managed to reach an agreement with Moscow, which at first allegedly did not treat this project with much enthusiasm. At least, according to President Japarov, he managed to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin during a personal meeting that Kyrgyzstan “needs this railway like water”.

The parties also reached an agreement with official Astana, which was initially not thrilled with the project to build this railway, which bypasses Kazakhstan. In addition, Bishkek managed to secure support for the project from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). In particular, the EAEU believes that the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will be implemented as part of the creation of a transport and infrastructure framework for this association which includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. It should be noted here that the need to build a China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway was first discussed in 1996, when Beijing announced its intention to build the Korla-Kashgar railway. A year later, at a special meeting in Tashkent, representatives of China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan signed a memorandum on the construction of a railway that would connect the three states. However, the matter did not go beyond talk and the project was “frozen” for almost a quarter of a century – the feasibility study (feasibility study) was never developed. Moreover it was not completely clear who would finance the construction of the highway and in what amounts. But recently as they say “the ice has broken” and the project has received a new impetus.

Among the main reasons for this is the strengthening of China’s position in the global economy and geopolitics, as well as the growing influence of Beijing directly in Central Asia. In addition, after the start of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine, China began to seriously consider creating alternative transport routes to Europe through the countries of Central Asia and Transcaucasia. As a result, in September 2022, during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand, the parties signed a cooperation agreement on a project concerning the construction of a highway in the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. In May 2023 at the China-Central Asia summit in Xi’an a Roadmap was approved on further steps to implement this transport and logistics initiative and the final version of the feasibility study was announced. And on June 19 of this year, after heated debates, the Kyrgyz parliament ratified the agreement on the construction of the highway. It can be added that it was only at the beginning of 2023 that the parties were able to reach a consensus on the issue of track gauge with great difficulty: after all, in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan it is 1520 mm and in China it is 1435 mm.

It is believed that all three participants will benefit from the implementation of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan project. According to experts, the project will allow for example Kyrgyzstan to strengthen trade and economic ties with China, break the trade deadlock and integrate into the international transportation system. In terms of direct economic benefits, the Kyrgyz authorities expect at least $200 million in annual income from the construction of this railway. In addition, the republic will have a chance to build its own north-south railway in the future through additional investment, thus connecting the entire country. This is very important for Bishkek, since Kyrgyzstan still does not have a single railway network. However, according to experts, the railway will bring even greater benefits to Uzbekistan, which is persistently striving to become an important logistics hub in Eurasia and will also allow Tashkent to increase its export-import potential, as well as to China – as a result, Beijing will receive a “third continental bridge” expand its opportunities for exporting goods to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan and, in general, strengthen its influence in Central Asia.

At the same time, despite all the advantages of building the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway experts still have questions about the implementation of the project. It is not yet entirely clear where Bishkek will get the funds for its part of the project (about $1 billion). The parties have not yet agreed on who will pay for the construction and how, under what schemes the invested funds will be returned, how the income from the road will be distributed, when it will be put into operation. A separate issue is the tariffs for transportation. The issues of environmental safety of the project have not been resolved, which is very worrying for participants in the “green” movement in all three countries.

In addition, some experts believe that the cost of implementing this project may increase significantly, since if 270 km of the road through Kyrgyzstan costs $4.7 billion, then the total cost of the highway will exceed $8 billion. And taking into account the construction in the mountains, the cost of the road may be $10-12 billion. This fact casts doubt on whether the parties will find sources of financing for this project.

So the implementation of the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway apparently will still face considerable difficulties and its future raises many questions…