Stanislav Ivanov, Leading Researcher, IMEMO RAS, PhD in History

As reported in the media, Turkey has submitted an official application to join BRICS and this issue will be considered at the October 2024 summit of the organization in the capital of Tatarstan, Kazan. Allegedly, R. Erdogan received a corresponding invitation and will personally participate in the work of this forum. There is no special sensation in the intention of the Turkish authorities to join BRICS; the country is thereby trying to diversify its membership in various international organizations and benefit from expanding ties and contacts with developing economies of the world.

Some experts believe that Turkey intends to position itself as an independent player in a multipolar world and even as a new center of power in world politics. This does not mean that Ankara is turning away from its traditional, rather close ties with the West; joining BRICS has more of a symbolic meaning for Ankara and will strengthen its position in future negotiations with Washington and Brussels. As is known, in 2024, the number of BRICS member countries increased significantly due to the entry of Egypt, the UAE, Ethiopia and Iran into this organization. Saudi Arabia, which has not yet officially formalized its membership in BRICS, also received a corresponding invitation. The core of this authoritative international organization is still made up of the founding countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China and, which joined it several years later, the Republic of South Africa.

It should be recalled that BRICS is an informal association of countries without any founding treaty, which serves as a platform for dialogue and development of comprehensive cooperation, primarily in the economic sphere. The leaders of the BRICS countries emphasize that they are not going to “make friends against someone”, but intend to develop mutually beneficial cooperation with all countries of the world. It is no coincidence that India has declared its intention to increase its annual trade turnover with the United States fourfold in the coming years, while China remains one of the main holders of American securities and maintains its trade turnover with the United States at a level of over 600 billion dollars per year. A distinctive feature of the BRICS countries is the high growth rate of their economies. However, the external apoliticality of BRICS does not mean that its members refuse to integrate efforts in the fight against new common threats to humanity (extremism, terrorism, drug trafficking, cybercrime, global warming, other environmental problems, etc.).

The expansion of BRICS is objectively embedded in the very logic of the creation and existence of this forum. The legal framework of BRICS is built on the protocols of summits and international agreements on individual issues. Within the framework of the XV BRICS summit in Johannesburg on August 22-24, 2023, standards, criteria and principles of procedures for the further expansion of BRICS were adopted. The decision to invite a new state to the Organization is made at the next summit of the participating countries by consensus. The invited country becomes a full member after its leader or foreign minister officially informs the BRICS chairman of the acceptance of such an invitation. At present, in addition to the nine member countries, another 34 countries have shown interest in BRICS and about 20 of them have already applied to join this organization. The expansion of BRICS corresponds to the general trend of building a polycentric world and reducing the dependence of developing countries on the United States and their Western partners. In particular, more and more countries want to abandon the dominance of the dollar in foreign trade, the IMF, the World Bank, and build an independent international monetary system.

At the same time, the founders of BRICS understand that a sharp increase in the Organization’s membership could lead to a blurring of its goals and objectives, the emergence of internal contradictions within this forum, including from the point of view of coherence of actions in the context of serious changes in the foreign policy and foreign economic situation in the world. The decision of the new president of Argentina to refuse the participation of this country in the Organization was perceived very negatively in the BRICS core. There are also certain concerns about the dependent approach of a number of candidate countries, which do not hide the fact that they would like to receive only favorable loans from the New Development Bank of BRICS. Therefore, it is proposed not to force the further process of expansion of BRICS member countries, but to create a wide range of partners or other various forms of interaction between countries and international organizations. It is possible that the experience of the SCO, which has observer countries and dialogue partners, could be taken as an example.

As for Turkey itself, the BRICS core understands all the pros and cons of the possible entry of this regional power into the Organization. The pros are obvious: a country with a fairly developed economy, a population of 90 million, which occupies an important strategic position on the sea, land and air communications of our planet and connects Europe, Asia and the Middle East. Turkey is of particular importance for China, India, Iran, Russia, and the Central Asian countries as a transit country for hydrocarbons and other goods in the context of the Ukrainian crisis. The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITC) is an important part of the southern corridor of the Great Silk Road. The network of pipelines, roads and railways, maritime shipping in the Black and Mediterranean Seas and the adjacent straits could play a very important role in the further integration of the BRICS and SCO countries. The great benefits of these projects for Turkey itself are also obvious (income from logistics, customs and other fees, etc.).

What causes some concern in case of Turkey’s admission to BRICS? A precedent is being created: a country that is a member of the military-political bloc NATO is joining the Organization. In addition, Ankara is a member of the Customs Union with the EU and, despite all the difficulties, continues negotiations with the European Union on joining this organization. The Turkish authorities have not yet been able to curb the outstripping growth of prices for food and basic necessities; inflation remains at a very high level (over 50% per year). Obviously, the BRICS leaders will face a difficult choice on the issue of further expansion of the Organization at the summit in Kazan in October this year. The motto of 2024, the year of Russia’s BRICS presidency, is “Strengthening multilateralism for equitable global development and security”.

The leaders of the nine BRICS member countries will soon have to decide to what extent Turkey’s admission to BRICS will correspond to this motto. It is possible that on the eve of the summit, consultations between the heads of the foreign policy departments will take place, where some mutually acceptable decisions will be developed by the participants, including regarding Turkey’s application.