Andrey Areshev, political scientist

On the night of June 4, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was elected on May 28, 2023, announced the composition of the new government, which was almost completely renewed. Only the ministers of health, Fakhreddin Koca, and ministers of culture and tourism, Mehmet Nuri Ersoy, remained in their former positions.

The new appointees are also well known in Turkey and beyond. Thus, the British-educated Minister of Finance and Treasury Mehmet Simsek already worked in a similar position in 2009-2015. (as well as Deputy Prime Minister in 2015-2018) in past Erdogan governments. The former economist Merill Lynch is clearly expected to stabilize the financial and economic system of Turkey, which has been in a fever for more than a year. High inflation, the depreciation of the lira, which takes a significant part of the country’s gold and foreign exchange reserves that have fallen “below the nud” to maintain the exchange rate – these are just some of the problems that an experienced economist and financier will have to solve, whose track record also includes work in leading positions in international financial structures, including post of Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Turkey.

The local media reported that M. Shimshek received guarantees from the president regarding the management of the Central Bank and interest rates, which may turn out to be very important. Recall that Erdogan’s conflicts with the financial bloc of the government led to the resignation of three finance ministers and heads of the central bank in less than 4 years. Under pressure from the head of state, the country’s central bank cut interest rates to 12% in 2019 before they were raised again to 17% in 2020. Then the rates were lowered again to 8.5% for the last two years.

As experts suggest, as part of the course towards the recovery of the national economy, one can expect some adjustment of the current policy, which implies low interest rates and abundant filling of ambitious projects with state money. The appointment of M. Simsek, positively perceived by business circles, is also a clear signal to Turkey’s Western partners in terms of upcoming changes in the economy, positive for foreign investment.

Instead of Mevlut Cavusoglu, 55-year-old Hakan Fidan became the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, since 2010 (with the exception of one month in the spring of 2015, when he wanted to go on an independent political “swimming”, having met with the categorical rejection of his boss) who headed the National Intelligence Organization of Turkey (MIT) . Being a descendant of immigrants from the province of Van and a Kurdish father, it is hardly accidental that it was Fidan who acted as a negotiator for the Turkish government in the framework of the “Kurdish initiative” of the then Prime Minister Erdogan.

Having made a brilliant career, the official, who hitherto relatively rarely appeared in public space, most actively influences the formation of Turkey’s foreign policy in an unstable region and in a changing world. After the failed coup attempt in 2016, Turkish intelligence took a leading role in pursuing and clearing the state bureaucracy of the “Gülenists” declared as implacable enemies of the Eodogan regime, including a number of behind-the-cord operations. Erdogan brought Fidan, whom he calls the “keeper of secrets,” to the post of foreign minister “as a reward for turning MIT into an organization playing an active role in all regional processes from Libya to Syria and from Ukraine,” writes the “People’s Republican” publication Cumhuriyet to the Caucasus. They are quite familiar with the new minister in Moscow; in particular, in several rounds of difficult negotiations to resolve the armed conflict in Syria.

Being one of the most knowledgeable people in the country, Fidan, as Minister of Foreign Affairs, personifies the Turkish President’s full awareness of the importance of the current moment and the opportunities and benefits that the Republic of Turkey can receive in a dynamically changing world. The wealth of experience and close ties with the secret services suggest the widespread use in the work of the diplomatic department, along with traditional means, of elements of the so-called “secret power”.

The name of Fidan’s own successor in the important position of Turkish intelligence chief is still unknown, but it is highly likely that he will be Ibrahim Kalin, a spokesman, foreign policy adviser and also one of the most trusted people of the Turkish president.

General Yasar Guler, who served as chief of the General Staff of the Turkish army, moved to the chair of the Minister of Defense, following the same career trajectory as his predecessor Hulusi Akar. From 2018, the governor of the province of Istanbul, Ali Yerlikaya, will replace Suleyman Soylu, who was distinguished by tough anti-American rhetoric, as the Minister of Internal Affairs.

Alparslan Bayraktar, who previously worked as deputy to the now former minister Fatih Dönmez, will now lead the Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Yilmaz Tunç, who previously led the parliamentary faction of the ruling Justice and Development Party, has been appointed Minister of Justice. The Ministry of Industry and Technology was headed by Mehmet Fatih Kadzhir, who since the summer of 2018 has been working as a deputy to his predecessor. The Ministry of Transport will be headed by Abdulkadir Uraloglu, who has headed the General Department of Roads since 2018. Europe-trained Omer Bolat, long-term coordinator of the Albayrak Group, a construction and media concern (with the popular newspaper Yeni Şafak among its assets), has been appointed as the new minister of commerce.

As he promised earlier, Erdogan did not increase the number of vice presidents; however, he replaced Fuad Ogtay in this post with Cevdet Yilmaz, who previously served in the government as a state minister (2009-2011) and minister of development and deputy prime minister for economy (2011-2016). Since 2020, Yılmaz has chaired the Budget Committee of the Turkish Parliament. Like many of his colleagues, he studied in the United States and, during the period of parliamentary government, was involved in the relations of the Prime Minister’s Office with the European Union.

The first meeting of the new government is scheduled for June 6. Many prominent representatives of the former cabinet of ministers – M. Cavusoglu, S. Soylu and others – were elected deputies of the Grand National Assembly and will continue their careers there – presumably, not in their last positions. According to an anonymous source in the Turkish Foreign Ministry, the economy will play a decisive role in shaping foreign policy for the next five years.

An opinion is expressed that changes in the composition of the government will have a positive impact on the internal and external situation of the country, ensuring the continuity of the policy of Recep Erdogan – first as prime minister, and since 2014 – president of Turkey.

As for Russian-Turkish relations, there can be no doubt that they will continue to be tested, to which the collective West will have a hand, using all the tools at its disposal. At the same time, the balanced policy of Ak-Saray towards Moscow, the refusal to join the anti-Russian sanctions, the priority of national interests allow us to hope for the preservation of the current status quo.