Trump threatens Tehran with unprecedented bombing if Iran does not conclude a nuclear deal

 Moscow has issued a warning to Washington, saying that any military attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities would have catastrophic consequences. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that “we consider such methods unacceptable, we condemn them, we consider them an attempt by the United States to impose its will on the Iranian side”.

 This came after President Trump raised the issue of a new war in the Middle East in an interview, threatening to use unprecedented measures against Iran if the country does not reach an agreement with the United States on its nuclear program. Since Trump’s demands regarding Iran’s nuclear program are quite radical, it is unlikely that Tehran will make concessions.

Trump is demanding that Tehran accept all of his terms of the new agreement, which would include not only the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, but also its ties to Middle Eastern resistance groups and many aspects of its missile and drone programs. In other words, according to Trump’s so-called “diplomacy,” the goal is to disarm Iran, reduce its influence in the region, and voluntarily renounce its rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Unsurprisingly in response to such a statement, the Iranian side has resolutely refused to negotiate with the Trump administration under the current conditions, but has expressed its readiness for indirect negotiations. In particular, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi allows for the possibility of negotiations with the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, which signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as an indirect form of diplomacy with Washington. However, this is not a sign of Tehran’s readiness to make concessions according to the scenario proposed by Trump.

Iran’s position remains unchanged, with the country’s leadership insisting on a complete lifting of all sanctions, rather than a temporary suspension as was the case in the 2015 agreement. In addition, any new agreement must contain legally binding guarantees to prevent future violations. The United States and its allies must stop exerting political pressure on Iran. Tehran believes that this step will not only demonstrate goodwill and build trust, but will also preserve the nuclear agreement, which enshrines Iran’s right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy in accordance with its needs and interests. Iran is not ready to discuss issues beyond its nuclear program, including missile development. According to the leadership, missile potential is a key element of diplomacy with world powers. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claims that the country’s defensive power has prompted major powers to negotiate rather than resort to military action. He believes that without the missile program, Iran would not be able to participate in the negotiations, since the destruction of its nuclear infrastructure by military means is impossible.

The US has a different view. Neoconservatives who previously advocated invading Iraq are calling for strikes on Iran, arguing that there may never be a better time for military action. As we learn more details, it becomes clear that Trump’s letter in early March was not just an invitation to dialogue and a hidden threat to use military force, but an ultimatum. In his message to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, he set a two-month deadline for reaching a new nuclear agreement.

In this case, the latest actions by the Trump administration can be interpreted as evidence that the US and Israeli armed forces are preparing for a large-scale military operation against Iran. The Pentagon has decided to extend the stay of the USS Harry S. Truman carrier strike group in the Middle East, as well as to send another group, the Carl Vinson, to the region. It has also become known that the US has transferred additional groups of fighters and bombers to the area. Six American B-2 bombers are now based at the US-UK air base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. This is significant because the B-2 can carry GBU-57 satellite-guided bombs that can penetrate more than 200 feet of reinforced concrete and could likely destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities at Natanz and Fordow.

Washington’s decision to base B-2 strategic bombers on Diego Garcia comes as the Gulf Arab monarchies refuse to side with the United States in a conflict with Iran. These countries have made it clear that they will not allow their airspace or territory to be used as a base for attacks on Iran, including refueling and rescue operations. As a result, Trump’s pressure on Iran could lead to the United States being isolated in the Middle East.

The Gulf States do not want to serve as a staging ground for any US military operations against Iran. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian held telephone talks with the Emir of Kuwait and the President of the United Arab Emirates. During the conversations, Iran’s Arab neighbors assured that they will not allow aggression from their territory against other countries and will advocate for a peaceful resolution of regional and international conflicts. However, it is not only about their peacefulness. There are US military bases in the Gulf countries that are within range of Iranian missiles and could become targets for retaliatory strikes from Iran.

Iranian authorities have sent a warning to Trump via the Swiss Embassy, ​​which represents US interests, that they will respond “immediately” to any attack. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also warned that the US would be hit hard if it carried out President Trump’s bombing threat. “They [Israel and the US] are threatening to attack us, which we think is unlikely, but if they commit any atrocity, they will certainly be hit hard,” Khamenei said.

Will Israel and the US diverge on Iran? Israel’s successes against Hamas, the weakening influence of Hezbollah, and the removal of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria have left the Islamic Republic in a position of extreme vulnerability that it has not been in for decades. This has made the Jewish state’s leadership feel the need for a swift military solution to the Iranian nuclear issue. Israel would prefer to work together with the US. While Netanyahu and Trump appear to be united in their views on Iran, Trump has leverage over Israel that could prevent war.

Otherwise, Donald Trump may go down in history not as the US leader who managed to resolve the Iranian crisis, but as the leader under whom Iran finally acquired the status of a nuclear power. The consequences of the strikes could prompt Tehran to develop nuclear weapons. Iran is already enriching uranium to weapons levels and may withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Nikolay Bobkin, political scientist
G.A. Arbatov Institute of the USA and Canada

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