Russia and Iran will closely monitor the implementation of the plan to create a Trump route

On August 10, in Washington, in the presence of President Donald Trump, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev, signed a Declaration on a preliminary agreement on the establishment of peace and state relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Yerevan also agreed to cooperate with the United States and other countries to create the so-called “Trump route”, the Zangezur corridor – the most important logistical artery of the Transcaucasus.

The transport corridor, approximately 40 kilometers long, is designed to ensure the unimpeded movement of goods and passengers from mainland Azerbaijan to the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic via the territory of the Syunik region of Armenia and back. However, this requires the construction of a highway and a railway. The project also includes the construction of road and rail links from Nakhichevan to the city of Kars (Turkey).

In Soviet times transportation between Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan enclave was carried out via a highway and the Transcaucasian Railway. With the collapse of the USSR and the beginning of the first Karabakh military conflict (1992-1994), the railway line was dismantled.

The idea of ​​the Zangezur corridor was first discussed by the Armenian and Azerbaijani authorities after the First Karabakh War. According to the first president of Armenia Robert Kocharyan, both sides came close to signing a corresponding agreement in 2001, according to which Baku agreed to Nagorno-Karabakh becoming part of Armenia in exchange for Yerevan’s willingness to provide transport links between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan. However, the Azerbaijani parliament prohibited the signing of this agreement, and all this time, transportation to and from the enclave was carried out by highway through Iran or by air.

After the Second Karabakh War (2020) Azerbaijan regained control over Nagorno-Karabakh and reached the border with the Syunik region of Armenia. The war was stopped thanks to Russia’s political intervention. The parties signed a trilateral ceasefire agreement, Article 9 of which provides for “the opening of all economic and transport links in the region”.

The Armenian authorities also assumed obligations to ensure transport links between the southwestern regions of Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh. The task of supervision was assigned to Russian border guards. The term “Zangezur Corridor” is not directly mentioned in the document. However, it was included in the political discourse by Ilham Aliyev, who considered that the basis for the implementation of this route was Article 9 of the agreement.

Quite naturally, Baku’s victory in the Second Karabakh War allowed President Ilham Aliyev to dictate unpleasant and unfavorable conditions for Armenia to open transport links with Nakhichevan. Quite lengthy negotiations on this issue, to which, incidentally, Russia was initially involved, were unsuccessful: the Armenian leadership each time put forward new conditions, often devoid of any meaning and significance. Yerevan’s position was pressured by the EU countries, Türkiye, Iran and even the United States.

Ilham Aliyev already stated in 2021 that the Zangezur corridor would be opened “regardless of Yerevan’s wishes,” called it “the historical territory” of Azerbaijan, and threatened to resolve the issue of constructing the route “by military means.” However, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry ruled out this option.

Baku’s desire to quickly restore communications with the enclave is understandable: there has been no communication for 30 years, and Azerbaijan is suffering significant economic losses. This aspiration is actively supported by the Turkish leadership. In September 2023, President Recep Erdogan spoke about the great potential of Nakhchivan in developing energy and logistics routes when creating the East-West transport corridor. At the same time, Ankara is counting on the possibility of creating a powerful additional route through Iran in the event of unforeseen difficulties in negotiations with Armenia.

The main condition for launching the transport route project between Western Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan was that Armenia would have full control over it. Russia offered its services in providing its security, customs control, as well as the participation of RAO Russian Railways in the construction and maintenance of the railway line. Yerevan does not have such opportunities. However, despite this, the Armenian side delayed the decision in every possible way, and in recent years has completely refused to help the Russian company.

Pashinyan in turn proposed the so-called “Crossroads of the World” project, first announced in October 2023. The initiative is based on strengthening Armenia’s ties with Azerbaijan, Turkey, Georgia and Iran by involving these countries in the construction, restoration and modernization of all transport infrastructure facilities: a railway line, a highway, energy supply and communication hubs, train and vehicle parking, customs and other technical structures in the Syunik region bordering Iran.

The project envisaged the restoration of the railway between the Armenian settlements of Meghri and Yarasakh on the border with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic of Azerbaijan with the city of Horadiz. According to Pashinyan, this project ensures the transportation of international cargo, and most importantly, connects neighboring states with economic ties. However, the idea remains unrealized to this day, as it requires careful consideration by representatives of all parties.

The position of the Azerbaijani leadership is to demand that Armenia renounce its claim to control the transport passage through Armenian territory – the Syunik region. Baku calls it Zangezur (Turkish name). Hence the name – Zangezur corridor, the launch of which and with its demands Baku insisted on with the obvious support of Ankara.

Iran, with which Armenia still manages to maintain, albeit cooled, relations, is against the Azerbaijani project. Depriving Yerevan of sovereignty over the so-called Zangezur corridor really threatens the political, military and economic interests of Tehran. Therefore, the Iranians are wary of Ilham Aliyev’s claims and support Armenia. The decision of Yerevan and Baku on this project initially caused sharp criticism from Iran, but then Tehran noticeably moderated its rhetoric.

 The US administration, seeing the difficult deadlock with the Transcaucasian transport passage and assessing the prospect of unleashing an Azerbaijani-Armenian military conflict, decided to take advantage of the situation in its own interests. On August 10, in Washington, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev, in the presence and with the participation of Donald Trump, signed a Declaration, according to which the parties agreed to consider the prospect of transferring the rights to participate in the creation of a transport corridor between Western Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan through the Syunik region of Armenia to an American private company. In this case, the Americans will exercise full control over the passage for 49 or 99 years.

The participation of the Americans will prevent the strengthening of the influence of Turkey, Britain, France, Israel and a number of other Western European countries, which are striving to enter the Caucasus. At the same time, the Yankees expect to become “full masters” of the situation in the region. According to estimates by the Caspian Sea Savings Center, the costs of construction and infrastructure of the corridor will amount to 3 to 5 billion US dollars over 5-10 years. Azerbaijan, according to its economists, will be able to increase the export of its products through Turkey to other countries by about 750 million dollars.

For Turkey, the Zangezur corridor in the form that Azerbaijan insists on will allow unimpeded communication with the Caspian Sea region, and over time, strengthen its ties with other Turkic-speaking republics of Central Asia. It is possible that Ankara will seek to use Azerbaijani territory for its military presence.

It should be noted that Azerbaijan is actively creating the infrastructure of the future corridor on its territory, as if the issue of the Zangezur Pass has already been resolved. By the beginning of February of this year, 62% of the construction of the Horadiz-Arbend railway, more than 110 kilometers long, was completed, as well as 93% of the highway to the Armenian border, 123.5 kilometers long. The construction of the railway from Nakhichevan to Kars, Turkey, is also in the implementation stage, the length of which is 224 kilometers. The project is planned to be completed in five years.

Despite the fact that the Declaration signed in the White House is not a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Yerevan and Baku regard the document as an important step towards normalizing bilateral agreements, expressing hope for the involvement of an American consortium for the construction of an important transport highway.

Russia has taken a reserved position on this issue, despite the obvious steps by the two Transcaucasian states to exclude Moscow from the negotiation process and the prospect of involving it in the implementation of the economic project. At the meeting between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and President Vladimir Putin in the Russian capital after the signing of the Declaration, it was announced that “Russia welcomes any steps by the Armenian leadership aimed at establishing peace in the region and developing its economy.”

Well, Pashinyans and Aliyevs come and go. In the current situation, Russia is busy solving complex security problems, and the involvement of the Americans can so far be considered a “memorandum of intent.” And it is not a fact that the Yankees will rush to implement the scandalous project after a detailed consideration of all the conditions for construction. The main thing for them is to “stake out” the idea for themselves and not allow others, primarily Russia, Iran, Turkey and Britain, to participate in the project.

According to the estimates of the parties themselves, the project will take at least five years to implement: during this time, “a lot of water will flow under the bridge.” Perhaps that is why Russia and Iran have taken a reserved position and are waiting for the “dust to settle”.

I cannot help but mention the funny episode when, in an interview with journalists, commenting on his contribution to stopping another war, the American president called Armenia Albania. Commenting here would only do harm. Trump’s slip of the tongue is an additional indicator of the place that the “proud Albanian state” occupies in the policy of its overseas overlord.

Yuri Veselov, Military observer

A source