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Central Asian countries – Ukraine: a cautious position

Date of publication: 5 May 2022
The States of the region reacted differently to the situation in Ukraine

Sergey Saenko, international columnist

On February 24, Russia launched a special military operation to protect the population of Donbass. The countries of Central Asia (CA) reacted differently to this event. At the same time, one of the main criteria for the attitude of the Central Asian states to the situation in Ukraine was the degree of dependence of their economies on Russia and the presence of numerous labor migrants there.

In addition, the countries of the region have to take into account international pressure, as well as security issues. The latter is extremely important for the Central Asian countries, since the region borders Afghanistan, and the risks of all five republics in this context are extremely high, while the main guarantor of their security is Russia, whose military bases are stationed in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

As before in the Crimean issue, the elites of the Central Asian states did not openly oppose Russia, but they also tried to carefully distance themselves from Moscow’s policy. For example, a month after the start of the special operation, all the countries of the region abstained or were absent during the vote on the anti-Russian resolution at the UN General Assembly. Unlike the elites, the opinions of citizens in the countries of the region are divided.

Experts believe that the consequences of the Ukrainian crisis will be very severe for all Central Asian states, primarily Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. These countries are closely connected with Russia in the economic and political spheres. It is believed that due to the conflict, the number of refugees to Russia from the DPR and LPR, as well as from Ukraine, will increase, many of whom will urgently receive Russian citizenship, and the Russian leadership will have to employ them. In this regard, the number of labor migrants from the post-Soviet countries, primarily from the Central Asian region, will decrease.

Local analysts believe that after the end of the crisis in Ukraine, the Central Asian countries will begin to comprehend the problem and the prospect of regional integration in a new way. It is believed that in this area they will pursue a twofold goal: firstly, they will begin to strengthen these integration processes, but without Moscow’s active participation; secondly, they will pursue a policy of checks and balances in the foreign policy area, balancing the presence of different players in the region – Russia, China, the United States and NATO, as well as Turkey, and not only in the economic, but also in the military-strategic sphere.

Kazakhstan. From the very beginning of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, Kazakhstan has advocated a peaceful resolution of the conflict. President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev calls on both sides of the conflict to find a compromise and negotiate. Like some other countries of the former USSR, Kazakhstan offered to provide a platform for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. “The Russian and Ukrainian peoples are fraternal for us, so of course we are worried. For our part, we are ready to provide all possible assistance so that intermediary services are used,” Kazakh Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tleuberdi stressed.

At a recent meeting of the Intergovernmental Council of the EEC in Nursultan, President Tokayev met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. The parties discussed joint measures to prevent a decrease in trade turnover between the countries against the background of the escalation of the situation in Ukraine and international sanctions against Russia. At the same time, it should be noted that Kazakhstan is actively negotiating a special operation in Ukraine with France and other EU countries, while constantly emphasizing that the country does not take sides in the conflict.

However, there is no unity among the population of Kazakhstan on the issue of the Ukrainian crisis. So, rallies in support of Ukraine have been repeatedly noted in the capital Nursultan. In addition, police and civil activists have announced a hunt for cars that depict the symbol Z.

Kyrgyzstan. Of all the countries in the region, the Republic has taken perhaps the mildest and most pro-Russian position on the Ukrainian crisis. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov supported “Russia’s decisive actions to protect the peaceful population of Donbass,” noting that Ukraine is responsible for the failure of the Minsk agreements.

On February 26, the administration of the President of Kyrgyzstan reported that Zhaparov and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed topical issues on the current agenda of Kyrgyz-Russian cooperation and “exchanged views on international and regional security issues, including the current situation around Ukraine.”

But if the position of the Kyrgyz authorities is clear enough, then the opinion of the population on the events around Ukraine is divided. Some consider Moscow’s actions “logical”, others – “criminal» and still others say that whatever it is, Kyrgyzstan should have nothing to do with them, and its soldiers have no reason to defend Russia in its confrontation not even with Ukraine, but with NATO. By the way, there is no unanimity in the country’s parliament either: some deputies recalled to Russia that the CSTO ignored last year’s severe conflict on the border with Tajikistan, “when one country of the bloc attacked another.”

Uzbekistan. Officially, the country positions itself in this conflict as a neutral party. On February 25, a telephone conversation took place between Vladimir Putin and President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev. At the same time, the official press releases of the two administrations differ. The website of the President of Uzbekistan states that during the conversation “there was also an exchange of views on the international and regional agenda, including the current situation around Ukraine.” In turn, the Kremlin’s press service reported that “Shavkat Mirziyoyev expressed understanding of the actions taken by the Russian side.”

According to the press secretary of the President of the country, Sherzod Asadov, Uzbekistan has close relations with both Russia and Ukraine and is interested in ensuring peace in the region. “All disputes and disagreements that arise should be resolved solely on the basis of the norms of international law,” Asadov wrote in his Telegram channel.

Tajikistan. There are no official comments on the website of the Presidential Administration of Tajikistan on the Ukrainian crisis. President Emomali Rahmon showed extreme caution – there was no public reaction on his part, which can be considered quite a prudent “vacuum” aimed at protecting his country from Western sanctions.

Experts believe that President Rahmon has an understanding that Moscow will not turn away from Tajikistan, which has a long border with Afghanistan, in the matter of ensuring its security. The calculation is correct: the security of Central Asia is automatically the security of Russia and the entire post-Soviet space. Therefore, Moscow will “forgive” Dushanbe for not recognizing the DPR and the LPR, as well as earlier – the independence of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and the legitimacy of the Crimea.

Turkmenistan. There is not a word about the events in Ukraine on the website of the President of the country. There is no mention of the Ukrainian crisis in the Turkmen media either. By and large, this is not surprising, since Turkmenistan is the most closed state of all the Central Asian countries.

 



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