Sergey Saenko, international observer

In the modern world, relations between India and China, whose populations are approaching one and a half billion people, are becoming one of the most important factors in the transformation of the regional and global security architecture. For this reason, a confrontation between New Delhi and Beijing could greatly change the geopolitical situation both in Asia and in the world as a whole.

In Hong Kong, the message about the construction of a base on the Lakshwadeep archipelago is called New Delhi’s response to the fact that the pro-Chinese president of the Maldives is expelling the Indian military from the country. In particular, as the Hong Kong newspaper The South China Morning Post writes, the matter is the presence of 89 Indian military experts in the Maldives, helping to maintain boats, an airplane and two helicopters, previously transferred by India to the island state. It should be noted that several Indian military doctors also worked in the Maldives. And so, the pro-Chinese President of the Maldives, Mohamed Muizzou, who won the elections last year, promised to expel Indian military personnel from the country.

True, we are not talking about a complete severance of relations between giant India and a small island state, better known for its excellent beaches. It cannot be ruled out that Indian military specialists will be replaced by civilians. However, New Delhi did not ignore Muizzu’s attempt to reorient policy towards Beijing. Moreover, India reacted nervously and at the highest level to the possibility that the Maldives could become a satellite of China. Suffice it to remember that in January of this year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself visited the Lakshwadeep archipelago, which has the status of a union territory of India. This visit can be considered an unambiguous hint to the Maldives not to overdo it regarding rapprochement with China. Moreover, the island on which the base will be built is located approximately 260 km south of the Maldives.

Of course, Indian-Chinese rivalry in the Indian Ocean has intensified noticeably recently. However, if you follow the opinion of most experts, a military conflict between New Delhi and Beijing over the construction of an Indian base on the Lakshwadeep archipelago is hardly possible, since both sides do not want to be drawn into a war. Especially in the current tense situation in the Middle East, which threatens a new large-scale war in the region? In addition, China can receive oil not only from the Persian Gulf countries, but also from Iran through overland pipelines through Central Asia and Pakistan.

In addition, New Delhi is fully aware that in a conflict with China the country would be in a vulnerable position. After all, Chinese long-range missiles aimed at India are located high in the mountains in Tibet and are capable of reaching any point on Indian Territory. In addition, India is interested in supplying its goods to Europe via the Northern Sea Route, and Russia has promised to facilitate this in every possible way. However, this route will partially pass through the South China Sea, which Beijing largely controls. And the escalation of India’s dispute with China would make New Delhi’s option of using the Northern Sea Route impossible.

India does not need an armed conflict with China over friction in the Indian Ocean. After all, New Delhi (and Beijing too) is quite content with the ongoing confrontation in the Himalayas. Four years have passed since the beginning of the conflict on the Ladakh plateau, but there is still no end in sight to the border confrontation between the two countries. While the two countries’ military buildup and periodic skirmishes have received little attention in the West, the escalating border confrontation has set in motion a long-term feud that could alter the geopolitical landscape, particularly in Asia. And given the fact that both countries have nuclear weapons, so does the whole world.

Recently, the parties have stated that the border issue between China and India is gradually moving from conflict and confrontation to a phase of normalized management. Therefore, the situation on the border will become more stable in the future. Indeed, New Delhi and Beijing constantly hold consultations and meetings on the border issue, but “things are still there.” It is no coincidence that the Chinese newspaper Global Times writes in its publication: “The border issue remains complex, and therefore it still requires both sides to further implement mechanisms at all levels and through various channels in order to meet each other halfway as often as possible in order to find a fair and reasonable decision”.

At the same time, it should be noted that the territorial dispute between India and China in the Himalayas and the friction between New Delhi and Beijing in the Indian Ocean are only the external part of the entire complex of difficult Indian-Chinese relations. It could have been resolved in one moment, if not for the rivalry and mistrust that both countries display and which complicate their normal interaction.

It is clear that India and China, with some of the fastest-growing economies in the world, are vying to become the undisputed superpower in Asia and are therefore suspicious of each other’s intentions. For example, New Delhi does not like the deepening of China’s relations with Russia. In turn, Beijing is sensitive to New Delhi’s rapprochement with the United States. The Chinese, in particular, are very concerned about India’s membership in the QUAD (Australia, India, USA and Japan) association, whose activities are clearly anti-Chinese. It is no secret that Beijing views New Delhi’s deepening ties with members of this bloc as a threat to national security. Moreover, QUAD has not only significantly revived its activities in recent years, but is also expanding cooperation with NATO, in which China is openly, called its enemy.

And there are many similar examples, in almost all areas. However, with all the variety of problem points in relations between India and China, one cannot help but see that they are not antagonistic in nature. Primarily they lack an ideological component. Yes, India’s democratic model and the building of socialism with Chinese characteristics would seem to be fundamentally different from each other. However, in their interpretation, New Delhi and Beijing have quite a lot of common features, which allows the two countries to actively compete with each other, but not to quarrel.

Moreover, despite all the contradictions, India and China have much more similar positions, especially in the international arena. They are not going to be content with the status of regional powers and see themselves among the leading countries of the world. Therefore, at this stage, New Delhi and Beijing are more likely to act as natural allies interested in revising the existing international order and creating a multipolar world order. Let us also not forget that India and China actively cooperate within the framework of international organizations and mechanisms such as the SCO, BRICS and the Russia-India-China (RIC) triangle.

At the same time, the leaders of India and China, Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping, have recently repeatedly emphasized the need to “work together, support each other, achieve mutual benefit and common gain, and plan for the future.” It is necessary to continue full cooperation including between the armed forces of the two countries.