Andrey Areshev, political scientist

On January 27, the first India-Central Asia summit was held via videoconference, which lasted about an hour and a half. The leaders of six countries – India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan considered proposals for further cooperation in the areas of trade and communications; cooperation for development, defense and security; cultural and humanitarian cooperation. Due to the difficult sanitary and epidemiological situation, the heads of state of Central Asia were unable to attend the Republic Day celebrations in New Delhi the day before, on January 26.

According to the Indian Foreign Ministry, they discussed the prospects for holding a round table on energy, joint anti-terrorist exercises, and the activities of working groups on Afghanistan. The participants of the event also paid attention to the prospects of using the Iranian port of Chahbahar on the coast of the Gulf of Oman, agreeing to create a special working group to solve the problem of free movement of goods and services for five states that do not have direct access to the sea.

In addition, it is planned to hold exhibitions of Indian products in the countries of Central Asia, create a dictionary of commonly used words, regularly exchange visits of youth delegations, and organize special courses for diplomats from Central Asian countries. The “IT/ITES” Task Force will focus on “digitization” and e-governance. According to some experts, by establishing intelligence cooperation, the relevant Indian services could gain a better understanding of various aspects of Chinese policy in the region.

“Central Asia holds a key place in India’s vision of an integrated and stable expanded neighborhood,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized in his opening remarks, noting the important role of mutual cooperation in ensuring regional security and stability. According to the head of government of the largest South Asian country, an effective structure of interaction will facilitate regular interaction at different levels and between different stakeholders. The proposed road map will allow the six countries to agree on a “comprehensive approach to regional cooperation for the next 30 years”.

The “Delhi Declaration” adopted at the end of the meeting outlined the vision of a comprehensive partnership and outlined some concrete steps for its implementation. Thus, a top-level summit is planned to be held every two years, not counting regular contacts between the ministers of foreign affairs, trade, culture, and the secretaries of the Security Councils. To ensure the functioning of the new structure, a special Secretariat for India and Central Asia will be created in New Delhi.

Of course, the path to Central Asia within the framework of the Indian policy of “extended neighborhood” is unlikely to be received “with a bang”, at least in China with its “One Belt, One Road” project, in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Recall that it was New Delhi with good reason that was considered as a key regional sponsor of the former Kabul regime of Ashraf Ghani, which finally “collapsed” by September 2021 under the blows of the Taliban militants (banned in the Russian Federation).

The participants of the online meeting declared their commitment to a “peaceful, secure and stable Afghanistan” with a “truly representative and inclusive government”, agreeing to create a dedicated working group. All this is seen as a kind of signal to the unrecognized regime in Kabul, which is interested in restoring donor assistance, to behave in a very definite way.

Neighboring Pakistan poses no less of a problem for India, the permanent enmity with which has an extremely negative effect on New Delhi’s ties with the Central Asian states. In particular, the “sworn neighbor” denies India cross-border transit, which limits its ability to develop cooperation with Afghanistan and the countries of Central Asia. The total volume of India’s trade with them in 2020 amounted to about three billion dollars – an order of magnitude less than similar «Chinese» indicator. Indian exports to the region in 2020-2021 amounted to 658 million dollars, and so far New Delhi is not a key trading partner for any of the countries of the Central Asian “five”.

Even if the idea of ​​making Chabahar a “trade gateway” to the region somehow materializes, it is unlikely that customs and tariff barriers will be removed without the successful completion of negotiations on a free trade zone between India and the Eurasian Economic Union. Despite some intensification of the TAPI pipeline project, designed to connect the gas fields of Turkmenistan with the markets of the Indian subcontinent, there is still little clarity here, as well as with the prospects for exporting electricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.

A natural priority for New Delhi is to ensure regional connectivity, which, given the difficult “political geography”, can be achieved through the development of the International Transport Corridor (ITC) “North-South” through the territory of Iran using its logistics capabilities. The southeastern ports of Bandar Abbas, and especially the aforementioned Chabahar, may well become transit points on the way to Central Asia, Russia and Europe.

“The importance of the Chabahar port was equally emphasized by all,” Indian Foreign Secretary Reenat Sandhu said at the end of the summit, assuring her readiness to “plan, build, invest and participate” in infrastructure projects “based on the priorities of transparency, broad participation, local priorities, financial sustainability and respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries”. The bet on Iran (with access to Turkmenistan through the Serakhs and Inche-Burun / Akyayla border crossings) seems to have no alternative, however, certain difficulties will also have to be faced here, due to both American sanctions pressure and the strengthening ties between Tehran and Beijing. On the eve of the new year, it became known about the opening of the Chinese consulate in Bandar Abbas, which reflects the growing attention of Beijing to the southeastern Iranian provinces of Hormozgan and Sistan-Baluchistan, which are important for the implementation of the North-South ITC project.

Speaking at the summit, President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev suggested considering the possibility of creating an interregional transport and logistics consortium, designed to “ensure effective coordination of national policies regarding the full and mutually beneficial loading of transport routes in the direction of India, the ports of the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf”.

According to the head of the Confederation of Indian Industries, Chandrajit Banerjee, the video conference “gives additional impetus to explore new areas of cooperation for the development of trade and investment and find new ways to overcome communication problems so that economic complementarity can be fully realized.” Of course, this is nothing more than the beginning of a long journey, which is unlikely to be “strewn with roses”. It is possible that the membership of India and its neighbors in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, whose potential within the Greater Eurasia framework has not yet been fully utilized, could also contribute to at least a partial mitigation of the existing contradictions.