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Russia – China: a friend is known in trouble

Date of publication: 28 March 2022
The crisis in Ukraine is testing the friendship between Moscow and Beijing

 Sergey Sajenko, international observer

Russia’s special military operation to protect the population of Donbass has mixed all the cards in the international arena. These days, the entire world order and its key mechanisms are being tested for strength. Relations between Moscow and Beijing are also being tested for strength. At the same time, many rumors and all kinds of conjectures concerning Russian-Chinese relations are born. However, one may observe about everything in order.

It is quite obvious that in connection with the beginning of Russia’s operation in Ukraine, the collective West showed amazing solidarity and came out against Russia as a united front. The United States, the European Union, Great Britain and a number of other countries have imposed sanctions against Russia. However, while some countries impose sanctions against our country because of the operation in Ukraine, others strengthen relations with Russia, or at least remain neutral. And this is not only about Belarus – the list of countries that have not condemned Moscow is replenished almost daily. These include: India, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Iran, Indonesia, Serbia, Syria, Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan.

As for China, the Celestial Empire not only did not condemn Russia, but openly blamed the United States and NATO for everything that happened. “Perhaps this is the difference between China and Westerners. We are in no hurry to draw conclusions. As far as defining an invasion, I think we need to go back to how we look at the current situation in Ukraine. The issue is also related to other very complex historical factors that are still active today. Perhaps not everyone wants to see this,” Hua Chunying, spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said almost immediately after the incident.

Indeed, China traditionally acts in the international arena very carefully and carefully. This is also the case with respect to the crisis around Ukraine. For example, when voting at the UN General Assembly on a resolution calling on Russia to end the special military operation in Ukraine, China, along with 33 other countries, abstained. China’s caution can be largely explained by the fact that Washington is putting unprecedented pressure on Beijing.

It is no secret that China and the United States have close trade and economic ties, and the business world of the Celestial Empire values these ties very much and does not want to break them because of the crisis around Ukraine. Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng recently said that Beijing will protect the interests of its national enterprises and oppose anti-Russian sanctions that destabilize the global market.

Under the current conditions, Beijing’s policy, according to The Financial Times, is that it wants to maintain a balance between Moscow and Washington. This duality of course was reflected in Wang Yi’s remarks during his speech at the Munich Security Conference last month. Then he spoke about the legitimate concerns of Russia, to the borders of which NATO is getting closer, and about the need to maintain the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Of course, in this case, Beijing “keeps in mind” Taiwan.

It is clear that China has not changed its position one iota on the crisis in Ukraine, and Beijing will not participate in any military operations. Taking into account the recent events around the Independent China, first of all, it calculates its economic strategy. Let’s not forget that trade between China and the United States grew by 28.7% in 2021 to $755.6 billion, maintaining a strong growth rate and amounting to 12% of total foreign trade for the year, despite tariffs and increased political tensions between two largest economies in the world. It should be noted that it is extremely important for Beijing not to harm good relations with Europe as well – after all, trade with the EU countries last year amounted to $828.1 billion, an increase of 27.5% year on year. In this regard, China clearly does not want to seriously quarrel with Washington and Brussels.

At the same time, Beijing is well aware that the United States now intends to destroy Russia with its “hellish” sanctions, and then take on China. And left alone, it will be very difficult for the Celestial Empire to stand alone against the United States. In this regard, strategic partnership with Russia can provide China with invaluable assistance and support. Yes, Beijing does not expect military assistance from Russia in the event of a war over Taiwan, just as Moscow does not expect military assistance from China during the operation in Ukraine. Apparently, it is enough for Russia that China shows that it is a reliable friend without joining the chorus of condemnation of Russia. It is also clear that Beijing will not turn its back on Moscow.

It does not seem that the crisis around Ukraine is capable of causing serious damage to the strategic partnership between Moscow and Beijing, which peaked during the February visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to China and his talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Thus, in strategic terms, Beijing clearly adheres to the policy of comprehensive support for Russia at the international level – whether it be a position in the UN or other international organizations. China firmly refuses to join the broad anti-Russian front. The recent meeting in Rome between Politburo member Yang Jiechi and National Security Adviser to the US President Jake Sullivan, where the situation in Ukraine was discussed, is a clear confirmation of this. In addition, Beijing adheres to “positive neutrality” in the information support of the situation in Ukraine.

Without a doubt, the test of the strength of Russian-Chinese relations is not limited to the Ukrainian crisis. It primarily affects the most important geopolitical and geo-economic projects of the scale of the Belt and Road Initiative, BRICS, SCO, and the EAEU. And here, for the time being, there are some problems that are connected precisely with the Ukrainian crisis – this is, first of all, the suspension of settlements with Russia by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and some other large Chinese banks, as well as the temporary suspension of Russian grain exports outside the EAEU.

In conclusion, we note that the joint Statement of Moscow and Beijing, adopted following President Putin’s February visit to Beijing, emphasizes that friendship between Russia and China “has no borders” and “there are no forbidden zones” in their cooperation. The document says that Moscow and Beijing oppose the further expansion of NATO and call on the alliance to abandon the approaches of the Cold War. Well, and finally, it is directly indicated that the positions of the parties are not subject to the influence of a changing international environment.



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