Stanislav Ivanov, Leading Researcher at IMEMO RAS, Candidate of Historical Sciences

For the first time in the last 13 years, Turkish President Erdogan arrived on an official visit to Iraq, where he held talks with the central authorities in Baghdad and the regional government of Iraqi Kurdistan. Erdogan was accompanied by a representative delegation consisting of Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Interior Minister Ali Yerlikay, Defense Minister Yashar Güler and several other ministers.

The distinguished guest was received by his Iraqi colleague Abdul Latif Rashid (Kurd) and the country’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani (Shiite Arab). It is reported that bilateral relations and regional problems were discussed, among the priorities at the negotiations were the distribution of water resources, security issues (the fight against terrorism), the export of Iraqi oil and gas and other goods to Turkey and EU countries, new joint regional logistics projects, etc.

As is known, Iraq stands for fair distribution of water from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, the sources of which are in Turkey. More than 95% of Iraq’s fresh water comes from these rivers. Türkiye built several dams and dams without agreement with the Iraqi side, thereby reducing the water level in the rivers to critical levels. A side effect was the redirection of salty seawater from the Persian Gulf upstream into the Iraqi Shatt al-Arab River.

During Erdogan’s visit to Baghdad, a strategic agreement was signed on the mutual modernization of irrigation systems for a period of 10 years, according to which the parties undertake to cooperate within the framework of joint projects to manage the water resources of the Tigris and Euphrates. In the future, it is planned to conclude similar agreements with Iran and Syria in order to maintain a balance of interests of all countries involved in the regional “water problem”.

The second, no less important issue on the agenda was the coordination of the efforts of the two countries in the fight against terrorism. Erdogan called on the Iraqi authorities to put an end to the activities of militants of the Turkish Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in northern Iraq. It is well known that Ankara, under the pretext of fighting them, periodically carries out missile and bomb attacks on Kurdish refugee camps and border settlements, and invades the north of the Iraqi province of Nineveh with ground forces. At the same time, populated areas and infrastructure are destroyed, and civilians are killed. On the eve of Erdogan’s visit to Iraq, the Turkish Air Force launched another series of attacks on PKK camps and bases in northern Iraq. In Baghdad and Erbil, these actions of the Turkish Armed Forces are regarded as a violation of international law and the sovereignty of Iraq.

It is appropriate to recall that the Kurdish problem, as such, is over in Turkey. The leader of the PKK, Abdullah Ocalan, is serving a life sentence and abandoned the slogan of the struggle for the creation of a Kurdish state; most of the PKK functionaries emigrated, among them there were more ethnic Turks than Kurds. The militants have disarmed or are hiding in inaccessible areas on the border with Iraq in the Qandil Mountains, some of them have ended up in refugee camps in Iraq and are trying to conduct propaganda work among local Kurdish youth. There have been no recent terrorist attacks, incursions or attacks on Turkish military, police and border guards by PKK militants from Iraq. Several hundred surviving PKK militants are engaged in shepherd racketeering, smuggling, and drug trafficking in the triangle of borders of Turkey, Iraq and Iran.

In Syria, Turkish Kurds joined the Democratic Union Party (DUP) and played a decisive role in the defeat of ISIS/IS (banned in the Russian Federation). Of Turkey’s 80 million population, approximately 20 million are ethnic Kurds, i.e. Every fourth citizen of Turkey is Kurdish. The legal pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democracy Party (PDP) has already confidently overcome the 10% barrier several times and is included in the Turkish Majlis as a faction. Kurds are represented in municipal and regional authorities and serve on an equal basis with Turks in the army and other security forces. The Kurds do not pose any threat to the Turkish authorities, although the special services sometimes, out of inertia, try to label them terrorists. As a rule, terrorist attacks in Turkey are carried out by remnants of ISIS gangs or Turkish nationalists.

As for the Iraqi Kurds, they not only acted as the main force in the fight against IS jihadists in 2014-2018, but objectively play the role of a link between the opposing blocs of Shiite Arab and Sunni parties. Thanks to their leader, Masoud Barzani, he managed to overcome more than one government crisis in Baghdad and achieve consensus among the Arabs. The regional government, as a federal subject of Iraq, maintains good neighborly and mutually beneficial relations with Ankara. It is no coincidence that Erdogan visited the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, Erbil, where he held meetings and negotiations with the leadership of the region and representatives of the large Turkoman community.

So, the bogeyman of the Kurdish threat is largely artificially fueled by the Turkish authorities in order to justify their aggressive actions in northern Iraq and Syria. Erdogan and his circle are trying to use pressure or “soft power” to draw these countries into the orbit of their foreign policy and economy. To some extent, these attempts by Ankara can be attributed to attempts to revive the Ottoman Empire again under new conditions. It is no coincidence that during his recent visit to Egypt, Erdogan emphasized the historical commonality of Arabs and Turks. The heirs of the Turkish sultans do not forget that Iraq was created by the British largely artificially, according to geographical maps, without taking into account the characteristics of the local population, on the basis of three Ottoman provinces (Basra, Baghdad and Mosul). Ankara does not even now hide its claims to the oil and gas-rich northern provinces of Iraq, primarily Mosul and Kirkuk.

At the end of Erdogan’s visit, a ceremony was held in Baghdad to sign a quadripartite memorandum of understanding with the participation of representatives of Iraq, Qatar, the UAE and Turkey. The parties agreed on close cooperation in the implementation of the large-scale project “Path of Development”, which will significantly facilitate the exchange of goods between the countries of the Middle East and Europe. The main transport routes will be connected to the large Iraqi port of Fao (Persian Gulf).

As part of this project, it is planned to modernize and build more than 1.2 thousand km of railways connected to expressways that will connect Iraq with neighboring countries. The agreement calls for the construction of a 1,200-kilometer (745-mile) highway and railway. The cost of the project is estimated at approximately $17 billion. In Baghdad, it is believed, not without reason that a significant part of the investment will come from Arab countries, in particular from the monarchies of the Persian Gulf.

It is possible that China and India will also show interest in this project. It is planned to complete the construction of the railway and highway by 2029. Analysts believe that the project could seriously compete with the Egyptian Suez Canal, which is still the main transport corridor between Europe and Asia. The signatories emphasized the importance of a new route from Asia to Europe against the background of the worsening situation in the Gaza Strip, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. This also responds to the global trend of searching for new trade routes, which is also associated with growing tensions between global powers. Erdogan also mentioned the signing of 26 other bilateral agreements in various fields, including trade, transport, energy, security and climate change.

In general, Erdogan’s visit to Iraq can be seen as a continuation of Ankara’s foreign policy course to strengthen its positions in the region. To some extent, this may compensate for Turkey’s losses from the severance of relations with Israel and curb Iran’s plans to gain a foothold in Iraq and Syria. The idea of a new alternative route from Asia to Europe through Iraq and Turkey meets the interests of Washington and its Western allies.

  It is unlikely that China and Russia will object to such a project. The Russian companies Lukoil, Gazromneft, and Rosneft operating in Iraq will be able to transport the oil and gas produced by the shortest route to the EU countries. This route will also be beneficial to most SCO and BRICS countries. India will be able to transport goods by sea through the Persian Gulf to the UAE, and then along new highways through Iraq and Turkey to Europe; it does not contradict the Chinese “One Belt, One Road” project.