Sergey Saenko, international observer

It is no big secret that Turkmenistan is one of the most closed states in the world, with very little known about the real state of affairs. At the same time, many, especially human rights activists, are well aware that the Turkmen government is characterized by authoritarianism, in which there can be practically no talk about human rights. However, the West is not particularly interested in the topic of human rights when it comes to hydrocarbons, which Turkmenistan is so rich in. It is believed that the country ranks 4th in the world in terms of gas reserves after Russia, Iran and Qatar.

Although it is obvious that for a long time the main obstacle in the development of Turkmenistan’s relations with Europe and the United States was problems with human rights – from the fate of people missing in Turkmen prisons, problems with women’s rights, the use of forced labor to freedom of exit from the country and freedom of speech, including an almost completely blocked Internet. But with the coming to power of President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, the Turkmen authorities began to make a lot of efforts to improve their image. Moreover, the situation is gradually changing both in the country’s domestic and foreign policy.

In particular, Ashgabat made numerous statements about the strict observance of women’s rights, noted the visits of foreign delegations to prisons and the reception of a delegation from the International Labor Organization to demonstrate the absence of forced labor. Further more. Thus, at the end of last year, on the Day of Neutrality, which is traditionally celebrated in Turkmenistan on December 12, Serdar Berdimuhamedov signed decrees pardoning 302 prisoners, including six foreign citizens. And literally on the eve of this holiday, in his speech, he summed up the results of the state’s foreign policy activities and identified the tasks of the country’s renewed diplomatic corps for the future.

At the same time, the strategic goal of Turkmenistan’s foreign policy remains unchanged – special attention is paid to interaction with the states of Central Asia and the Middle East, the implementation of the agreements reached in June 2022 at the VI Ashgabat Summit of the Caspian States, expanding contacts with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region and the development of a multimodal transport and transit corridor from Asia to Europe. By the way, it is worth noting that in the above-mentioned speech, the Turkmen president did not mention Russia even once, although he had previously stated that Moscow is Ashgabat’s main ally, and relations between Turkmenistan and Russia are of a strategic nature.

In the same speech, the President of Turkmenistan put the United States in second place on the list of foreign policy allies. “Guided by its neutral status, our state maintains equal relations with the United States. Over the years of independence, effective economic cooperation has been established with large American companies,” Serdar Berdimuhamedov emphasized. The past year has clearly confirmed that Ashgabat intends to intensify its relations with Washington. For example, on December 5, 2023, President Berdimuhamedov received the executive director of the Turkmenistan-US Business Council, Eric Stewart.

The details of this meeting were not published, but information was leaked to the press that the parties discussed bilateral cooperation and the contribution of the Business Council to expanding the partnership. It was noted that its US companies operate in the Turkmen market in strategically important sectors. Moreover, promising areas of cooperation include the oil and gas sector, electric power, renewable energy, transport and communications, agriculture and high technology. By the way, back in May last year, Turkmenistan developed and presented to President Serdar Berrdimuhamedov a roadmap for cooperation with the United States for 2023-2024. We are talking primarily about the supply of Turkmen energy resources to Western markets. However, other areas of this cooperation cannot be ruled out.

Here, perhaps, it is necessary to emphasize that Turkmenistan, within the framework of its multi-vector policy and equidistance from world centers, seeks to develop relations not only with the United States, but also with other Western countries. For example, Ashgabat has big plans and programs with the countries of the Old World, primarily in the fields of energy, transport and technology. In particular, Serdar Berdimuhamedov stated this at a government meeting last December.

This may also be evidenced by the fact that Turkmenistan has recently intensified the search for opportunities to implement the Trans-Caspian pipeline project, which provides for the transportation of natural gas from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan through Azerbaijan and Georgia to Turkey and further to the countries of the European Union. Moreover, we emphasize, bypassing Russia. This fact can only indicate that President Berdimuhamedov’s foreign policy guidelines are related to the economy, and first of all, to gas, the export of which constitutes the main, nervous tissue of the entire foreign policy – where to sell, to whom to sell and where is it more profitable to sell your gas. Moreover, not only China, which, according to the British Energy Institute, is the main buyer of Turkmen gas.

According to some experts, having become almost completely dependent on Beijing’s monopoly purchases, Ashgabat is seeking to escape this dependence. In this regard, attempts to export gas to Europe have recently resumed, which, quite naturally, causes extreme dissatisfaction in China. Previously, Russia offered active resistance to Ashgabat’s plans to export gas to Europe: the difficult fate of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline is a vivid example of this. Now it’s Beijing’s turn. Today, Serdar Berdimuhamedov apparently considered that Moscow’s influence is declining, and Russia is unlikely to be able to really resist Ashgabat’s plans to export Turkmen gas (together with Azerbaijani gas) to European countries. However, Turkmenistan, obviously, early wrote off Moscow, and even more so Beijing, which are capable of influencing the plans of the Turkmen authorities that run counter to the national interests of Russia and China.

Yes, the reformatting of the gas market in Europe and the world in recent years has given Ashgabat another chance to realize its grandiose plans to export Turkmen gas to the West, in particular to the countries of the European Union. It is not by chance that in this regard, Ashgabat has intensified contacts with EU representatives in recent months. Thus, in August last year, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan, Rashid Meredov, held a meeting with the Ambassador of the European Union, Diego Ruiz Alonso, who was completing his diplomatic mission, during which a wide range of issues were discussed, including gas supplies to the countries of the Old World.

True, with gas projects that help the Turkmen authorities successfully pursue their foreign policy, not everything is so simple and unambiguous. So, for example, the implementation of another transcontinental project – TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India), an important part of Ashgabat’s foreign policy, unexpectedly encountered an obstacle in the form of US sanctions against the current authorities of Afghanistan. But according to the management of the TAPI Pipeline company, 90% of which is owned by the state concern Turkmengas, it has already appealed to the US authorities “…with a request to ease sanctions against the Taliban government (the movement is banned in Russia) for the implementation of the TAPI gas pipeline”.