Nikolay Bobkin, political scientist

Institute of the USA and Canada. Academician G.A. Arbatova

Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip threatens to escalate into open conflict between the United States and Iran, although both sides have officially stated that they do not intend to resort to military action. The American president who ended the war in Afghanistan may go down in history as the president who started a new regional war.

Since Gaza began, there have been at least 165 attacks on US troops in Iraq, Syria and now Jordan, which some hawks in Washington are demanding the administration respond to with military action against Iran. After three US soldiers were killed and more than 30 wounded in a drone attack on a remote logistics outpost near the Jordan-Syria border on January 29, President Biden was presented with several options for military operations against Iran.

It would seem that now, when the White House, deprived of direct contacts with the Iranian leadership, is considering the possibility of opening new fronts of confrontation with Iran, diplomacy does not matter, but this is not entirely true. The US wants China to help prevent the war in Gaza from escalating into a larger regional conflict. Beijing’s undisputed influence over Tehran, a key supporter of Hamas, the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Shiite groups in Iraq, means the Middle Kingdom could play a regional peacemaker role. The question now is whether China is willing to enter the game for a plan that will cost it but also benefit the United States.

It is clear that the Americans are not changing their position against China’s growing influence in the region, but at the moment they need this influence, in particular, on Tehran, since Washington’s efforts to localize the war in Gaza have not worked. Despite the growing tensions between the United States and China, there is still some ability in Washington to understand that Chinese participation cannot be done without Chinese participation on the international stage. Moreover, there are problems in the Middle East in which their interests converge, for example, to ensure the security of sea routes on which global trade depends.

​ But the Chinese have been slow to help the Americans, who blame Beijing for not taking any visible steps to try to promote security in the Red Sea, including since its only declared overseas military base is in Djibouti, adjacent to the strait. zone. Before this, Washington perceived the Chinese military presence there as a direct threat to its interests, but now as an argument to persuade the PRC to cooperate. The White House, as press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said, is not happy that the Chinese leadership “is largely sitting on its hands and expressing veiled criticism of US actions.”

In fact, if China can be reproached for passivity, it can only be from the positions of the United States and Israel. Beijing has its own policy, the Chinese have chosen “anti-Western neutrality, that is, a “neutrality” that does not allow condemnation of any country or force that undermines America’s leadership position. China has refused to condemn Hamas for terrorism and has called Israel’s indiscriminate bombing campaign criminal. Given the growing distrust in the region over the double standards of the Biden administration, which allowed Israel to move on to genocide of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. This approach does not harm China’s relations with its Middle Eastern partners.

As a result, all sides of the various fault lines in the Middle East view China as an honest broker, and no one feels threatened by Beijing’s relations with third countries. In such a situation, the PRC does not need to establish itself as a leading influencer in the region by helping the Americans. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan’s January 26-27 talks with Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Bangkok did not change China’s approach.

Wang Yi noted that every country has its own national security problems, but there should be no politicization and no desire to suppress and restrain the development of other countries. The statement by the Chinese Foreign Ministry following the meetings focused on the problems of bilateral relations. Noting that this year marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, the Chinese side calls for taking this opportunity to “treat each other as equals” instead of “emphasizing differences” and “undermining each other’s core interests.” friend.” The Taiwan issue was described as an “internal issue” of China, and regional issues including the Middle East, Ukraine, the Korean Peninsula and the South China Sea were not reflected in the statement.

The White House also did not comment on these topics of negotiations, noting in general terms that “relations between Washington and Beijing have shown signs of stabilization in the months following the meeting between Biden and Xi Jinping.” But experts in the United States drew attention to the fact that Chinese officials, even after meetings with Sullivan, did not make any specific comments regarding the fact that Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have increased the cost of shipping and insurance, disrupting a key trade route between Asia and Europe. widely used by ships from China. Notably, US efforts to assemble a multinational naval force to counter the threat have failed to attract regional partners such as Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, which remain wary of Biden’s policies in the Gaza Strip.

As for pressure on Tehran, few believe that Beijing is ready to sacrifice relations with the region’s largest trading partner due to problems with shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. It also emphasizes that Chinese refineries last year bought more than 90% of Iran’s exported crude oil, bypassing American sanctions. In short, according to American observers, China’s ability to benefit from conflicts and tensions in the Middle East, as well as its rapidly expanding economic presence there, give no reason to expect that Beijing will try to help the United States.

Iran is certainly trying to take advantage of the war in Gaza to demonstrate its transnational axis. However, the increased participation of Iranian-backed groups – from Hezbollah and the Houthis to various militias in Syria and Iraq – has not led to new disagreements between Tehran and the Gulf states. Rather than destroying relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the Gaza war appears to have strengthened them.

In this situation, the United States has a simple solution: immediately call for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, suspend military assistance to Israel, and commit to de-escalating the conflict throughout the region on all fronts.