Vladimir Kirilov, international observer

On April 11 the first ever summit of leaders of the United States, Japan and the Philippines took place in Washington. Initially the state visit of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to the United States was supposed to take place during this time frame, but then, in order to avoid gathering twice, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. joined the US President and the Japanese guest. However, it was hardly impromptu. The “historic” event was preceded by “artillery preparation” in the form of a visit on March 19 to the Philippines by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during which the agenda for the upcoming summit was agreed upon.

The purpose of the summit was obvious. The day before, summing up the results of negotiations with Kishida, President Biden announced a historic renewal of defense ties with allies in the Asia-Pacific region (APR), aimed at countering a resurgent China. It was precisely this partnership on anti-Chinese grounds that Manila was invited to join.

It must be said that Washington is producing various alliances and communities in the Asia-Pacific region with enviable productivity. These include the notorious AUKUS (USA, UK and Australia) or “Asian NATO” which Canada, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea and Japan intend to join; QUAD (USA, Australia, India and Japan); “Five Eyes” – intelligence alliance (USA, Australia, UK, Canada and New Zealand).

It would seem why create so many structures that largely duplicate each other. But there is an explanation for this – too different countries with complex relationships are present in the region. It is difficult to bring them to a common political denominator. If we talk about security, some see their primary threat in China, others in the DPRK, and still others in Russia. At the same time, countries with territorial disputes fear an armed conflict. Others are primarily concerned about economic expansion. There are also those who, seeing the United States’ interest in promoting its interests are not averse to reaping dividends in the field of “multi-vectorism” and although many of them are tired of the confrontation between China and the United States, they are not at all averse to using this situation to their advantage. By the way a similar multi-block picture in the region was observed in the middle of the last century during the Cold War; here we can recall the deceased SEATO, CENTO, ANZUS, ANZUK.

So, in the format of the current summit, it was stated that it will primarily discuss security in the South China Sea (SCS), through which transportation worth $3 trillion is carried out. Concern was expressed about China’s “dangerous and aggressive” behavior, militarization and territorial claims to some islands and reefs. The leaders of the United States, Japan and the Philippines agreed to further strengthen the Philippine Coast Guard, conduct joint exercises, joint naval patrols in the South China Sea and create a new channel of dialogue between them to coordinate actions in the region. The final declaration emphasized “an unwavering commitment to freedom of navigation and air services.” An incensed Biden vowed to defend the Philippines from any attack in the South China Sea and said that “the United States’ defense commitments to Japan and the Philippines are unshakable”.

The summit also announced a number of economic initiatives, including the creation of the Luzon Economic Corridor and a commitment to invest in Philippine infrastructure, including modernization of ports and railways, green energy, and doubling the number of chip assembly, testing and packaging plants that for some time now they have also become an instrument of struggle between the United States and China.

Summing up the summit, the Philippine President said: “I think the tripartite agreement is extremely important. It will change the dynamic. The dynamics are observed in the region, in ASEAN, in Asia, around the South China Sea”.  He also expressed confidence that within five to ten years, partners’ investments in the country’s economy will reach $100 billion.

American analysts give a positive assessment of the “unification of the allied ranks” in the Asia-Pacific region. Indeed, using the Philippines as its regional proxy looks very promising. Let us remember that this became possible after Ferdinand Marcos Jr. came to power in the country. He did everything to eliminate as much as possible the negative aftertaste of his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte’s anti-Americanism, set a course for rapprochement with Washington, strained relations with Beijing and declared his “unwavering commitment to the rules-based international order.” Studying and living in the USA was not in vain.

As for Japan, it has always been, without exaggeration, the most important and loyal ally of the United States in the region, and with the outbreak of the military conflict in Ukraine, it intensified its rapprochement with Washington in the military-political field. In addition to its traditional enemy, China, Tokyo is increasingly concerned about the growing military power of the DPRK. Kishida announced his intention to join the regional missile defense shield being created by the United States as part of increasingly close cooperation with the AUKUS bloc.

Washington was of some concern about the long-standing hostility in Tokyo’s relations with another US ally, Seoul. However, here too a change of power came to the court. After the presidential term of Yoon Seok Yeol, which began in May 2022, the situation has changed dramatically. Tokyo and Seoul normalized bilateral relations, which served as the basis for a triple alliance with Washington. This was confirmed by the meeting of the leaders of the United States, Japan and South Korea at Camp David last August, at which they agreed to deepen defense cooperation and jointly contain China, North Korea and Russia. For these purposes, a permanent mechanism of coordination and cooperation between the three countries was created.

The summit in Washington drew expected criticism from Beijing. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a demarche to Japan, the United States and the Philippines. A corresponding statement was made by ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning, who stressed that China resolutely opposes any actions leading to an escalation of confrontation. China’s Foreign Ministry summoned Yokochi Akira, Minister Counselor at the Japanese Embassy in Beijing, to protest. Director-General of the Department of Asian Affairs Liu Jinsong expressed China’s serious concerns and strong dissatisfaction with the trilateral summit.

Indeed, the emergence of Manila as a proxy in the South China Sea could significantly increase strategic security risks in the region. In this case, warnings and concerns may no longer be enough. The answer to Washington’s activity in the Asia-Pacific region can be received during the upcoming visit to China by Russian President Putin with its possible continuation at negotiations in Pyongyang.